Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Panathinaikos vs Ajax

Panathinaikos vs Ajax prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Europa League 2024-08-08 18:00
Panathinaikos
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
43%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Ajax
Away

Prediction Summary

1
30%
X
27%
2
43%
Under 2.5
57%
BTTS No
52%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Panathinaikos (Home)

Goals scored / match1.2
Goals conceded / match1.2
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate60%

Ajax (Away)

Goals scored / match1.67
Goals conceded / match1.11
Over 2.5 rate33%
BTTS rate44%

Team Form last 5 matches

Panathinaikos
WLWWL
Ajax
LLLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

80% +0.5 78%
40% +1.5 44%
0% +2.5 33%
0% +3.5 11%
0% +4.5 0%
60% BTTS 44%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.

Panathinaikos averages 1.2 goals scored at home, while Ajax averages 1.67 goals scored away.

Model Strength
57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
30%
Draw
27%
Away Win
43%
Over 2.5
43%
BTTS Yes
48%

Head-to-Head last 3

Jul 2026 Panathinaikos(A) 3 - 1 Ajax Home
Aug 2024 Panathinaikos(A) 1 - 0 Ajax Home
Aug 2024 Panathinaikos 0 - 1 Ajax Away

In the last 3 meetings, Panathinaikos won 2, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Panathinaikos — unbeaten run (home)0
Panathinaikos — scoring streak (home)0
Ajax — winless run (away)1
Ajax — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Panathinaikos Win (1)30%
Draw (X)27%
Ajax Win (2)43%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

80% +0.5 78%
40% +1.5 44%
0% +2.5 33%
0% +3.5 11%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

20% -0.5 22%
60% -1.5 56%
100% -2.5 67%
100% -3.5 89%
100% -4.5 100%

Panathinaikos vs Ajax — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Panathinaikos — scored (home)1.2
Panathinaikos — conceded (home)1.2
Ajax — scored (away)1.67
Ajax — conceded (away)1.11
Model expected combined goals2.39

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%
No52%

Rate per Team

Panathinaikos — BTTS matches (home)60%
Ajax — BTTS matches (away)44%
Combined (simple average)52%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.564%
Under 4.536%
Over 5.558%
Under 5.542%
Over 6.552%
Under 6.548%
Over 7.552%
Under 7.548%
Over 8.547%
Under 8.553%
Over 9.541%
Under 9.559%
Over 10.516%
Under 10.584%
Expected total corners (blended average)6.40

Per-Team Corners own matches

Panathinaikos (home)

Corners for9.0
Corners against3.3

Ajax (away)

Corners for4.0
Corners against4.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Panathinaikos
17 0 0 0 0
Ajax
12 10 13 11 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

Panathinaikos (home)

For1.7

Ajax (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Panathinaikos — total shots (home)18.0
Ajax — total shots (away)11.2

Shots on Target

Panathinaikos — on target (home)5.0
Ajax — on target (away)5.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Panathinaikos

Inside the box10
Outside the box3.67

Ajax

Inside the box8.67
Outside the box3.83

Player Shots Panathinaikos

F. Ioannidis
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target33%
Aitor Cantalapiedra
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target0%
A. Šporar
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
D. Mancini
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target0%
F. Đuričić
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Ajax

O. Edvardsen
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
B. Brobbey
Shots on Target/Game2.3
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target38%
W. Weghorst
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
K. Hlynsson
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
M. Godts
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target18%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Panathinaikos xG (home)1.61
Ajax xG (away)1.72

Average Possession

53.83% Possession 50.92%

Team Comparison Panathinaikos vs Ajax

84% Pass accuracy 82.58%
471.17 Passes per match 484
- Goals prevented 0.4
11.33 Fouls committed 13.46
3.17 Goalkeeper saves 3.31
2 Offsides 1.38
16.83 Tackles per match 19.25

League average xG this season is 1.47 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Panathinaikos vs Ajax prediction analysis

Review Panathinaikos vs Ajax with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Europa League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Europa League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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