Prediction Analysis: Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal
Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Paris Saint Germain
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
67%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Arsenal
Away
Prediction Summary
1
35%
X
22%
2
43%
Over 2.5
67%
BTTS Yes
68%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Paris Saint Germain (Home)
Goals scored / match2.67
Goals conceded / match0.89
Over 2.5 rate44%
BTTS rate56%
Arsenal (Away)
Goals scored / match2.43
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate71%
Team Form last 5 matches
Paris Saint Germain
WWWLW
Arsenal
LLWWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
89%
+0.5
71%
56%
+1.5
57%
44%
+2.5
29%
33%
+3.5
29%
22%
+4.5
29%
56%
BTTS
71%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 67%. Model confidence is Medium.
Paris Saint Germain averages 2.67 goals scored at home, while Arsenal averages 2.43 goals scored away.
Model Strength
68%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
35%
Draw
22%
Away Win
43%
Over 2.5
67%
BTTS Yes
68%
Head-to-Head last 4
May 2026
Paris Saint Germain
1 - 1
Arsenal
Draw
May 2025
Paris Saint Germain
2 - 1
Arsenal
Home
Apr 2025
Paris Saint Germain(A)
1 - 0
Arsenal
Home
Oct 2024
Paris Saint Germain(A)
0 - 2
Arsenal
Away
In the last 4 meetings, Paris Saint Germain won 2, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Paris Saint Germain — unbeaten run (home)3
Paris Saint Germain — scoring streak (home)3
Arsenal — winless run (away)1
Arsenal — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Paris Saint Germain Win (1)35%
Draw (X)22%
Arsenal Win (2)43%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
89%
+0.5
71%
56%
+1.5
57%
44%
+2.5
29%
33%
+3.5
29%
22%
+4.5
29%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
11%
-0.5
29%
44%
-1.5
43%
56%
-2.5
71%
67%
-3.5
71%
78%
-4.5
71%
Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Paris Saint Germain — scored (home)2.67
Paris Saint Germain — conceded (home)0.89
Arsenal — scored (away)2.43
Arsenal — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals3.46
Both Teams To Score
Yes68%
No32%
Rate per Team
Paris Saint Germain — BTTS matches (home)56%
Arsenal — BTTS matches (away)71%
Combined (simple average)63.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.582%
Under 7.518%
Over 8.562%
Under 8.538%
Over 9.557%
Under 9.543%
Over 10.545%
Under 10.555%
Expected total corners (blended average)11.00
Per-Team Corners own matches
Paris Saint Germain (home)
Corners for7.7
Corners against3.3
Arsenal (away)
Corners for6.3
Corners against4.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Paris Saint Germain
10
10
4
8
10
Arsenal
9
8
14
4
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.6
Yellow Cards per Team
Paris Saint Germain (home)
For0.9
Arsenal (away)
For2.0
Shots per Game
Paris Saint Germain — total shots (home)23.3
Arsenal — total shots (away)14.3
Shots on Target
Paris Saint Germain — on target (home)8.2
Arsenal — on target (away)5.6
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Paris Saint Germain
Inside the box12.71
Outside the box6.18
Arsenal
Inside the box10.29
Outside the box2.79
Player Shots Paris Saint Germain
O. Dembélé
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target87%
+1.5 On Target53%
D. Doué
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target31%
Gonçalo Ramos
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target17%
K. Kvaratskhelia
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target11%
A. Hakimi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target24%
Player Shots Arsenal
R. Sterling
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
Gabriel Jesus
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target20%
B. Saka
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target89%
+1.5 On Target56%
D. Rice
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target8%
E. Nwaneri
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target29%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Paris Saint Germain xG (home)2.13
Arsenal xG (away)1.92
Average Possession
61.65%
Possession
51%
Team Comparison Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal
88.18%
Pass accuracy
85.29%
625.88
Passes per match
445.5
0.19
Goals prevented
0.25
9.12
Fouls committed
11.14
2.47
Goalkeeper saves
2.43
1.59
Offsides
1.64
19.65
Tackles per match
14.86
League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal prediction analysis
Review Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
UEFA Champions League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights