Prediction Analysis: Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München
Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Paris Saint Germain
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
86%
Confidence
High
Score
2-2
Bayern München
Away
Prediction Summary
1
40%
X
19%
2
41%
Over 2.5
86%
BTTS Yes
82%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
Paris Saint Germain (Home)
Goals scored / match2.89
Goals conceded / match1.67
Over 2.5 rate44%
BTTS rate78%
Bayern München (Away)
Goals scored / match3.14
Goals conceded / match1.86
Over 2.5 rate43%
BTTS rate100%
Team Form last 5 matches
Paris Saint Germain
DDWWW
Bayern München
DLWWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
100%
+0.5
100%
67%
+1.5
86%
44%
+2.5
43%
44%
+3.5
43%
33%
+4.5
29%
78%
BTTS
100%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 86%. Model confidence is High.
Paris Saint Germain averages 2.89 goals scored at home, while Bayern München averages 3.14 goals scored away.
Model Strength
86%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
40%
Draw
19%
Away Win
41%
Over 2.5
86%
BTTS Yes
82%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Paris Saint Germain(A)
1 - 1
Bayern München
Draw
Apr 2026
Paris Saint Germain
5 - 4
Bayern München
Home
Nov 2025
Paris Saint Germain
1 - 2
Bayern München
Away
Nov 2024
Paris Saint Germain(A)
0 - 1
Bayern München
Away
Mar 2023
Paris Saint Germain(A)
0 - 2
Bayern München
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Paris Saint Germain won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Paris Saint Germain — unbeaten run (home)7
Paris Saint Germain — scoring streak (home)9
Bayern München — winless run (away)1
Bayern München — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Paris Saint Germain Win (1)40%
Draw (X)19%
Bayern München Win (2)41%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
100%
+0.5
100%
67%
+1.5
86%
44%
+2.5
43%
44%
+3.5
43%
33%
+4.5
29%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
0%
-0.5
0%
33%
-1.5
14%
56%
-2.5
57%
56%
-3.5
57%
67%
-4.5
71%
Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Paris Saint Germain — scored (home)2.89
Paris Saint Germain — conceded (home)1.67
Bayern München — scored (away)3.14
Bayern München — conceded (away)1.86
Model expected combined goals4.78
Both Teams To Score
Yes82%
No18%
Rate per Team
Paris Saint Germain — BTTS matches (home)78%
Bayern München — BTTS matches (away)100%
Combined (simple average)89%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.589%
Under 5.511%
Over 6.584%
Under 6.516%
Over 7.558%
Under 7.542%
Over 8.551%
Under 8.549%
Over 9.544%
Under 9.556%
Over 10.526%
Under 10.574%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Paris Saint Germain (home)
Corners for5.7
Corners against2.7
Bayern München (away)
Corners for5.3
Corners against4.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Paris Saint Germain
4
10
7
9
14
Bayern München
9
19
11
7
9
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4
Yellow Cards per Team
Paris Saint Germain (home)
For0.9
Bayern München (away)
For2.0
Shots per Game
Paris Saint Germain — total shots (home)18.7
Bayern München — total shots (away)16.4
Shots on Target
Paris Saint Germain — on target (home)7.1
Bayern München — on target (away)8.4
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Paris Saint Germain
Inside the box11.24
Outside the box7.53
Bayern München
Inside the box13.07
Outside the box5.36
Player Shots Paris Saint Germain
K. Kvaratskhelia
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target38%
O. Dembélé
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target31%
D. Doué
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target31%
Vitinha
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target18%
Fabián Ruiz
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target11%
Player Shots Bayern München
H. Kane
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target92%
+1.5 On Target62%
M. Olise
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target77%
+1.5 On Target54%
L. Díaz
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target25%
L. Karl
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target38%
N. Jackson
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target20%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Paris Saint Germain xG (home)1.97
Bayern München xG (away)2.72
Average Possession
63.65%
Possession
60.79%
Team Comparison Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München
88.12%
Pass accuracy
88.36%
629.18
Passes per match
623.79
-0.19
Goals prevented
-0.12
9.06
Fouls committed
10.64
2.41
Goalkeeper saves
3.71
1.71
Offsides
1.67
16.88
Tackles per match
14.79
League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München prediction analysis
Review Paris Saint Germain vs Bayern München with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
UEFA Champions League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights