Prediction Analysis: Paris Saint Germain vs Lens
Paris Saint Germain vs Lens prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Ligue 1
2025-09-14
15:15
Paris Saint Germain
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
60%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Lens
Away
Prediction Summary
1
51%
X
23%
2
26%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
61%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Paris Saint Germain (Home)
Goals scored / match2.41
Goals conceded / match0.71
Over 2.5 rate47%
BTTS rate35%
Lens (Away)
Goals scored / match1.82
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate59%
Team Form last 5 matches
Paris Saint Germain
LWWDW
Lens
WLWDD
Goals Comparison rate per team
100%
+0.5
76%
71%
+1.5
53%
47%
+2.5
29%
12%
+3.5
18%
12%
+4.5
6%
35%
BTTS
59%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is Medium.
Paris Saint Germain averages 2.41 goals scored at home, while Lens averages 1.82 goals scored away.
Model Strength
61%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
51%
Draw
23%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Yes
61%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Paris Saint Germain(A)
2 - 0
Lens
Home
Sep 2025
Paris Saint Germain
2 - 0
Lens
Home
Jan 2025
Paris Saint Germain(A)
2 - 1
Lens
Home
Dec 2024
Paris Saint Germain(A)
1 - 1
Lens
Draw
Nov 2024
Paris Saint Germain
1 - 0
Lens
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Paris Saint Germain won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.
Current Streaks
Paris Saint Germain — unbeaten run (home)3
Paris Saint Germain — scoring streak (home)17
Lens — winless run (away)0
Lens — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Paris Saint Germain Win (1)51%
Draw (X)23%
Lens Win (2)26%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
100%
+0.5
76%
71%
+1.5
53%
47%
+2.5
29%
12%
+3.5
18%
12%
+4.5
6%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
0%
-0.5
24%
29%
-1.5
47%
53%
-2.5
71%
88%
-3.5
82%
88%
-4.5
94%
Paris Saint Germain vs Lens — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Paris Saint Germain — scored (home)2.41
Paris Saint Germain — conceded (home)0.71
Lens — scored (away)1.82
Lens — conceded (away)1.29
Model expected combined goals3.12
Both Teams To Score
Yes61%
No39%
Rate per Team
Paris Saint Germain — BTTS matches (home)35%
Lens — BTTS matches (away)59%
Combined (simple average)47%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.594%
Under 4.56%
Over 5.588%
Under 5.512%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.562%
Under 7.538%
Over 8.556%
Under 8.544%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00
Per-Team Corners own matches
Paris Saint Germain (home)
Corners for7.5
Corners against2.7
Lens (away)
Corners for5.6
Corners against4.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Paris Saint Germain
9
14
15
9
6
Lens
6
15
11
9
28
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.5
Yellow Cards per Team
Paris Saint Germain (home)
For1.4
Lens (away)
For2.5
Shots per Game
Paris Saint Germain — total shots (home)20.2
Lens — total shots (away)14.6
Shots on Target
Paris Saint Germain — on target (home)7.0
Lens — on target (away)4.7
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Paris Saint Germain
Inside the box11.18
Outside the box6.53
Lens
Inside the box11.47
Outside the box4.97
Player Shots Paris Saint Germain
B. Barcola
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target72%
+1.5 On Target31%
K. Kvaratskhelia
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target29%
Gonçalo Ramos
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target23%
D. Doué
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target22%
O. Dembélé
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target23%
Player Shots Lens
O. Édouard
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target69%
+1.5 On Target34%
W. Saïd
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target31%
F. Thauvin
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target21%
M. Udol
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target9%
M. Sangaré
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target10%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Paris Saint Germain xG (home)2.12
Lens xG (away)1.99
Average Possession
68.79%
Possession
51.12%
Team Comparison Paris Saint Germain vs Lens
91.06%
Pass accuracy
84.24%
723.03
Passes per match
463.53
-0.17
Goals prevented
0.17
9.18
Fouls committed
12.71
2.26
Goalkeeper saves
2.48
1.4
Offsides
2.23
14.88
Tackles per match
18.74
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Paris Saint Germain vs Lens prediction analysis
Review Paris Saint Germain vs Lens with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights