Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Paris Saint Germain vs PSV Eindhoven

Paris Saint Germain vs PSV Eindhoven prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Champions League 2024-10-22 19:00
Paris Saint Germain
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
65%
Confidence
Medium
Score
2-1
PSV Eindhoven
Away

Prediction Summary

1
63%
X
19%
2
18%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Paris Saint Germain (Home)

Goals scored / match2.67
Goals conceded / match0.89
Over 2.5 rate44%
BTTS rate56%

PSV Eindhoven (Away)

Goals scored / match1.33
Goals conceded / match1.83
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate83%

Team Form last 5 matches

Paris Saint Germain
WWWLW
PSV Eindhoven
DLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 83%
56% +1.5 33%
44% +2.5 17%
33% +3.5 0%
22% +4.5 0%
56% BTTS 83%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 65%. Model confidence is Medium.

Paris Saint Germain averages 2.67 goals scored at home, while PSV Eindhoven averages 1.33 goals scored away.

Model Strength
65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
63%
Draw
19%
Away Win
18%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Yes
60%

Head-to-Head last 1

Oct 2024 Paris Saint Germain 1 - 1 PSV Eindhoven Draw

In the last 1 meetings, Paris Saint Germain won 0, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Paris Saint Germain — unbeaten run (home)3
Paris Saint Germain — scoring streak (home)3
PSV Eindhoven — winless run (away)2
PSV Eindhoven — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Paris Saint Germain Win (1)63%
Draw (X)19%
PSV Eindhoven Win (2)18%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 83%
56% +1.5 33%
44% +2.5 17%
33% +3.5 0%
22% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 17%
44% -1.5 67%
56% -2.5 83%
67% -3.5 100%
78% -4.5 100%

Paris Saint Germain vs PSV Eindhoven — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Paris Saint Germain — scored (home)2.67
Paris Saint Germain — conceded (home)0.89
PSV Eindhoven — scored (away)1.33
PSV Eindhoven — conceded (away)1.83
Model expected combined goals3.36

Both Teams To Score

Yes60%
No40%

Rate per Team

Paris Saint Germain — BTTS matches (home)56%
PSV Eindhoven — BTTS matches (away)83%
Combined (simple average)69.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.581%
Under 6.519%
Over 7.581%
Under 7.519%
Over 8.575%
Under 8.525%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.542%
Under 10.558%
Expected total corners (blended average)11.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Paris Saint Germain (home)

Corners for7.7
Corners against3.3

PSV Eindhoven (away)

Corners for5.0
Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Paris Saint Germain
10 10 4 8 10
PSV Eindhoven
10 9 11 8 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.584%
Under 0.516%
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3

Yellow Cards per Team

Paris Saint Germain (home)

For0.9

PSV Eindhoven (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

Paris Saint Germain — total shots (home)23.3
PSV Eindhoven — total shots (away)13.3

Shots on Target

Paris Saint Germain — on target (home)8.2
PSV Eindhoven — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Paris Saint Germain

Inside the box12.71
Outside the box6.18

PSV Eindhoven

Inside the box10.5
Outside the box6.75

Player Shots Paris Saint Germain

O. Dembélé
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target87%
+1.5 On Target53%
D. Doué
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target31%
Gonçalo Ramos
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target17%
K. Kvaratskhelia
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target11%
A. Hakimi
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target24%

Player Shots PSV Eindhoven

J. Bakayoko
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target17%
R. Pepi
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target29%
I. Saibari
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target20%
I. Perišić
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target25%
M. Tillman
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target33%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Paris Saint Germain xG (home)2.13
PSV Eindhoven xG (away)1.64

Average Possession

61.65% Possession 55%

Team Comparison Paris Saint Germain vs PSV Eindhoven

88.18% Pass accuracy 85.08%
625.88 Passes per match 515.92
0.19 Goals prevented 0.21
9.12 Fouls committed 10.58
2.47 Goalkeeper saves 3.42
1.59 Offsides 1.33
19.65 Tackles per match 20.25

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Paris Saint Germain vs PSV Eindhoven prediction analysis

Review Paris Saint Germain vs PSV Eindhoven with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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