Prediction Analysis: Parma vs Cagliari
Parma vs Cagliari prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-08-23
16:30
Parma
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
48%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Cagliari
Away
Prediction Summary
1
38%
X
28%
2
34%
+2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS
48%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Parma (Home)
Goals scored / match0.84
Goals conceded / match1.32
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate47%
Cagliari (Away)
Goals scored / match0.95
Goals conceded / match1.58
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate63%
Team Form last 5 matches
Parma
WLLLW
Cagliari
WWLDW
Goals Comparison rate per team
63%
+0.5
63%
21%
+1.5
32%
0%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
47%
BTTS
63%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 48%. Model confidence is Medium.
Parma averages 0.84 goals scored at home, while Cagliari averages 0.95 goals scored away.
Model Strength
58%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
38%
Draw
28%
Away Win
34%
Over 2.5
42%
BTTS Yes
48%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
Parma
1 - 1
Cagliari
Draw
Sep 2025
Parma(A)
0 - 2
Cagliari
Away
Feb 2025
Parma(A)
1 - 2
Cagliari
Away
Sep 2024
Parma
2 - 3
Cagliari
Away
Jun 2023
Parma
0 - 0
Cagliari
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Parma won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Parma — unbeaten run (home)1
Parma — scoring streak (home)4
Cagliari — winless run (away)0
Cagliari — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Parma Win (1)38%
Draw (X)28%
Cagliari Win (2)34%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
63%
+0.5
63%
21%
+1.5
32%
0%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
37%
-0.5
37%
79%
-1.5
68%
100%
-2.5
100%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Parma vs Cagliari — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Parma — scored (home)0.84
Parma — conceded (home)1.32
Cagliari — scored (away)0.95
Cagliari — conceded (away)1.58
Model expected combined goals2.34
Both Teams To Score
Yes48%
No52%
Rate per Team
Parma — BTTS matches (home)47%
Cagliari — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)55%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.543%
Under 9.557%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.20
Per-Team Corners own matches
Parma (home)
Corners for4.2
Corners against4.0
Cagliari (away)
Corners for3.4
Corners against5.3
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Parma
11
11
9
17
2
Cagliari
10
9
12
6
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4
Yellow Cards per Team
Parma (home)
For1.8
Cagliari (away)
For2.5
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.571%
Under 19.529%
Over 22.557%
Under 22.543%
Over 25.543%
Under 25.557%
Expected total shots24.91
Parma
Shots Over 9.575%
Shots Over 11.560%
Shots Over 13.545%
Expected shots13.37
On Target Over 3.558%
On Target Over 4.540%
On Target Over 5.526%
Expected on target4.20
Cagliari
Shots Over 9.564%
Shots Over 11.546%
Shots Over 13.531%
Expected shots11.55
On Target Over 3.549%
On Target Over 4.532%
On Target Over 5.519%
Expected on target3.72
Shots per Game
Parma — total shots (home)12.4
Cagliari — total shots (away)11.1
Shots on Target
Parma — on target (home)2.9
Cagliari — on target (away)3.5
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Parma
Inside the box5.97
Outside the box4.74
Cagliari
Inside the box6.71
Outside the box4.21
Player Shots Parma
Mateo Pellegrino
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
Gabriel Strefezza
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
P. Cutrone
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target13%
J. Ondrejka
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target31%
+1.5 On Target6%
Adrián Bernabé
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target3%
Player Shots Cagliari
Zito Luvumbo
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
A. Belotti
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
M. Felici
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
S. Esposito
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target6%
G. Borrelli
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target11%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Parma xG (home)0.84
Cagliari xG (away)1.01
Average Possession
44%
Possession
45.58%
Team Comparison Parma vs Cagliari
79.66%
Pass accuracy
80.03%
361.58
Passes per match
394.18
0.07
Goals prevented
-0.02
10.87
Fouls committed
13.79
3.03
Goalkeeper saves
3.21
1.35
Offsides
1.74
13.92
Tackles per match
16.05
League average xG this season is 1.26 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Parma vs Cagliari prediction analysis
Review Parma vs Cagliari with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights