Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Parma vs Como

Parma vs Como prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-05-03 13:00
Parma
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
54%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Como
Away

Prediction Summary

1
40%
X
25%
2
35%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Parma (Home)

Goals scored / match1.32
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate68%

Como (Away)

Goals scored / match1.11
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Parma
WDLLD
Como
LDWWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

79% +0.5 68%
47% +1.5 26%
5% +2.5 16%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
68% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 54%. Model confidence is Medium.

Parma averages 1.32 goals scored at home, while Como averages 1.11 goals scored away.

Model Strength
57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
40%
Draw
25%
Away Win
35%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
57%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Parma(A) 0 - 1 Como Away
Oct 2025 Parma 0 - 0 Como Draw
May 2025 Parma 0 - 1 Como Away
Oct 2024 Parma(A) 1 - 1 Como Draw
Feb 2024 Parma(A) 1 - 1 Como Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Parma won 0, drew 3 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Parma — unbeaten run (home)1
Parma — scoring streak (home)0
Como — winless run (away)1
Como — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Parma Win (1)40%
Draw (X)25%
Como Win (2)35%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

79% +0.5 68%
47% +1.5 26%
5% +2.5 16%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

21% -0.5 32%
53% -1.5 74%
95% -2.5 84%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Parma vs Como — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Parma — scored (home)1.32
Parma — conceded (home)1.47
Como — scored (away)1.11
Como — conceded (away)1.37
Model expected combined goals2.82

Both Teams To Score

Yes57%
No43%

Rate per Team

Parma — BTTS matches (home)68%
Como — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)60.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.585%
Under 4.515%
Over 5.574%
Under 5.526%
Over 6.569%
Under 6.531%
Over 7.563%
Under 7.537%
Over 8.555%
Under 8.545%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.534%
Under 10.566%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.80

Per-Team Corners own matches

Parma (home)

Corners for4.1
Corners against5.4

Como (away)

Corners for3.8
Corners against4.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Parma
6 10 4 5 11
Como
9 10 6 10 5

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.584%
Under 2.516%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Parma (home)

For2.1

Como (away)

For2.5

Shots per Game

Parma — total shots (home)11.6
Como — total shots (away)12.7

Shots on Target

Parma — on target (home)4.1
Como — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Parma

Inside the box6.61
Outside the box4.58

Como

Inside the box8.68
Outside the box5.03

Player Shots Parma

M. Keita
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target7%
+1.5 On Target7%
J. Ondrejka
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
D. Camara
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target5%
S. Sohm
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target8%
Mateo Pellegrino
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target23%

Player Shots Como

J. Ikoné
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target15%
N. Paz
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target66%
+1.5 On Target20%
Assane Diao
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target27%
P. Cutrone
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target18%
A. Dossena
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Parma xG (home)1.18
Como xG (away)1.18

Average Possession

44.13% Possession 54.79%

Team Comparison Parma vs Como

79.68% Pass accuracy 84.45%
383 Passes per match 464.71
-0.14 Goals prevented -0.05
10.66 Fouls committed 13.24
2.74 Goalkeeper saves 2.47
0.82 Offsides 1.81
13.76 Tackles per match 17.45

League average xG this season is 1.22 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Parma vs Como prediction analysis

Review Parma vs Como with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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