Prediction Analysis: PEC Zwolle vs Ajax
PEC Zwolle vs Ajax prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Eredivisie
2026-08-09
12:30
PEC Zwolle
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
57%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Ajax
Away
Prediction Summary
1
33%
X
25%
2
41%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
PEC Zwolle (Home)
Goals scored / match1.24
Goals conceded / match1.24
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate47%
Ajax (Away)
Goals scored / match1.76
Goals conceded / match1.41
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate76%
Team Form last 5 matches
PEC Zwolle
LLWLD
Ajax
DWDLD
Goals Comparison rate per team
71%
+0.5
88%
35%
+1.5
59%
12%
+2.5
29%
6%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
47%
BTTS
76%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.
PEC Zwolle averages 1.24 goals scored at home, while Ajax averages 1.76 goals scored away.
Model Strength
57%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
33%
Draw
25%
Away Win
41%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
PEC Zwolle
0 - 0
Ajax
Draw
Sep 2025
PEC Zwolle(A)
1 - 3
Ajax
Away
Mar 2025
PEC Zwolle
0 - 1
Ajax
Away
Nov 2024
PEC Zwolle(A)
0 - 2
Ajax
Away
Mar 2024
PEC Zwolle
1 - 3
Ajax
Away
In the last 5 meetings, PEC Zwolle won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.
Current Streaks
PEC Zwolle — unbeaten run (home)0
PEC Zwolle — scoring streak (home)0
Ajax — winless run (away)1
Ajax — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5
1X2 Probability model
PEC Zwolle Win (1)33%
Draw (X)25%
Ajax Win (2)41%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
71%
+0.5
88%
35%
+1.5
59%
12%
+2.5
29%
6%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
29%
-0.5
12%
65%
-1.5
41%
88%
-2.5
71%
94%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
PEC Zwolle vs Ajax — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
PEC Zwolle — scored (home)1.24
PEC Zwolle — conceded (home)1.24
Ajax — scored (away)1.76
Ajax — conceded (away)1.41
Model expected combined goals2.82
Both Teams To Score
Yes57%
No43%
Rate per Team
PEC Zwolle — BTTS matches (home)47%
Ajax — BTTS matches (away)76%
Combined (simple average)61.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.564%
Under 8.536%
Over 9.554%
Under 9.546%
Over 10.545%
Under 10.555%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.30
Per-Team Corners own matches
PEC Zwolle (home)
Corners for4.1
Corners against6.1
Ajax (away)
Corners for4.4
Corners against6.2
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
PEC Zwolle
7
8
6
11
14
Ajax
10
11
16
4
12
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4
Yellow Cards per Team
PEC Zwolle (home)
For1.7
Ajax (away)
For2.1
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.575%
Under 19.525%
Over 22.563%
Under 22.537%
Over 25.551%
Under 25.549%
Expected total shots26.69
PEC Zwolle
Shots Over 9.573%
Shots Over 11.559%
Shots Over 13.544%
Expected shots13.26
On Target Over 3.562%
On Target Over 4.546%
On Target Over 5.532%
Expected on target4.59
Ajax
Shots Over 9.574%
Shots Over 11.560%
Shots Over 13.545%
Expected shots13.42
On Target Over 3.567%
On Target Over 4.551%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.93
Shots per Game
PEC Zwolle — total shots (home)9.9
Ajax — total shots (away)13.3
Shots on Target
PEC Zwolle — on target (home)3.5
Ajax — on target (away)5.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
PEC Zwolle
Inside the box6.12
Outside the box3.53
Ajax
Inside the box10.03
Outside the box4.83
Player Shots PEC Zwolle
K. Kostons
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target26%
Y. Namli
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target23%
T. Oosting
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target18%
O. Velanas
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
S. Shoretire
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target4%
Player Shots Ajax
M. Godts
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target38%
S. Berghuis
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target29%
O. Gloukh
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target14%
K. Taylor
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target7%
W. Weghorst
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target17%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
PEC Zwolle xG (home)1.19
Ajax xG (away)1.62
Average Possession
44.94%
Possession
56.39%
Team Comparison PEC Zwolle vs Ajax
77.53%
Pass accuracy
85.03%
379.68
Passes per match
528.97
-0.25
Goals prevented
0.13
11.53
Fouls committed
10.25
4.09
Goalkeeper saves
3.19
1.74
Offsides
1.48
17.29
Tackles per match
16.89
League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
PEC Zwolle vs Ajax prediction analysis
Review PEC Zwolle vs Ajax with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Eredivisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights