Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen

PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eredivisie 2025-11-28 19:00
PEC Zwolle
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
48%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Heerenveen
Away

Prediction Summary

1
31%
X
26%
2
43%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

PEC Zwolle (Home)

Goals scored / match1.24
Goals conceded / match1.24
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate47%

Heerenveen (Away)

Goals scored / match1.44
Goals conceded / match1.78
Over 2.5 rate22%
BTTS rate56%

Team Form last 5 matches

PEC Zwolle
LLWLD
Heerenveen
LDLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 72%
35% +1.5 50%
12% +2.5 22%
6% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 56%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 48%. Model confidence is Low.

PEC Zwolle averages 1.24 goals scored at home, while Heerenveen averages 1.44 goals scored away.

Model Strength
52%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
31%
Draw
26%
Away Win
43%
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS Yes
52%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 PEC Zwolle(A) 2 - 4 Heerenveen Away
Nov 2025 PEC Zwolle 2 - 1 Heerenveen Home
Feb 2025 PEC Zwolle 1 - 1 Heerenveen Draw
Oct 2024 PEC Zwolle(A) 1 - 1 Heerenveen Draw
Mar 2024 PEC Zwolle(A) 0 - 2 Heerenveen Away

In the last 5 meetings, PEC Zwolle won 1, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

PEC Zwolle — unbeaten run (home)0
PEC Zwolle — scoring streak (home)0
Heerenveen — winless run (away)2
Heerenveen — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

PEC Zwolle Win (1)31%
Draw (X)26%
Heerenveen Win (2)43%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 72%
35% +1.5 50%
12% +2.5 22%
6% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 28%
65% -1.5 50%
88% -2.5 78%
94% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

PEC Zwolle — scored (home)1.24
PEC Zwolle — conceded (home)1.24
Heerenveen — scored (away)1.44
Heerenveen — conceded (away)1.78
Model expected combined goals2.58

Both Teams To Score

Yes52%
No48%

Rate per Team

PEC Zwolle — BTTS matches (home)47%
Heerenveen — BTTS matches (away)56%
Combined (simple average)51.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.597%
Under 5.53%
Over 6.591%
Under 6.59%
Over 7.580%
Under 7.520%
Over 8.572%
Under 8.528%
Over 9.560%
Under 9.540%
Over 10.552%
Under 10.548%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

PEC Zwolle (home)

Corners for4.1
Corners against6.1

Heerenveen (away)

Corners for5.2
Corners against5.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

PEC Zwolle
7 8 6 11 14
Heerenveen
7 12 10 16 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.591%
Under 0.59%
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.1

Yellow Cards per Team

PEC Zwolle (home)

For1.7

Heerenveen (away)

For1.6

Shots per Game

PEC Zwolle — total shots (home)9.9
Heerenveen — total shots (away)13.7

Shots on Target

PEC Zwolle — on target (home)3.5
Heerenveen — on target (away)4.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

PEC Zwolle

Inside the box6.12
Outside the box3.53

Heerenveen

Inside the box9.89
Outside the box5

Player Shots PEC Zwolle

K. Kostons
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target26%
Y. Namli
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target23%
T. Oosting
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target18%
O. Velanas
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
S. Shoretire
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Heerenveen

J. Trenskow
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target68%
+1.5 On Target35%
L. Nordås
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target35%
M. Rivera
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target27%
D. Vente
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target16%
R. Meerveld
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target16%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

PEC Zwolle xG (home)1.19
Heerenveen xG (away)1.71

Average Possession

44.94% Possession 51.2%

Team Comparison PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen

77.53% Pass accuracy 79.77%
379.68 Passes per match 443.94
-0.25 Goals prevented -0.23
11.53 Fouls committed 10.89
4.09 Goalkeeper saves 3.83
1.74 Offsides 1.26
17.29 Tackles per match 15.17

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen prediction analysis

Review PEC Zwolle vs Heerenveen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eredivisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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