Prediction Analysis: PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven
PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Eredivisie
2025-10-04
18:00
PEC Zwolle
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
58%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-2
PSV Eindhoven
Away
Prediction Summary
1
13%
X
19%
2
68%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
PEC Zwolle (Home)
Goals scored / match1.24
Goals conceded / match1.24
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate47%
PSV Eindhoven (Away)
Goals scored / match2.53
Goals conceded / match1.12
Over 2.5 rate35%
BTTS rate71%
Team Form last 5 matches
PEC Zwolle
LLWLD
PSV Eindhoven
WWDWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
71%
+0.5
100%
35%
+1.5
82%
12%
+2.5
35%
6%
+3.5
24%
0%
+4.5
12%
47%
BTTS
71%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 58%. Model confidence is Medium.
PEC Zwolle averages 1.24 goals scored at home, while PSV Eindhoven averages 2.53 goals scored away.
Model Strength
68%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
13%
Draw
19%
Away Win
68%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
50%
Head-to-Head last 5
Apr 2026
PEC Zwolle(A)
1 - 6
PSV Eindhoven
Away
Oct 2025
PEC Zwolle
0 - 4
PSV Eindhoven
Away
Jan 2025
PEC Zwolle
3 - 1
PSV Eindhoven
Home
Oct 2024
PEC Zwolle(A)
0 - 6
PSV Eindhoven
Away
Feb 2024
PEC Zwolle
1 - 7
PSV Eindhoven
Away
In the last 5 meetings, PEC Zwolle won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.
Current Streaks
PEC Zwolle — unbeaten run (home)0
PEC Zwolle — scoring streak (home)0
PSV Eindhoven — winless run (away)0
PSV Eindhoven — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
PEC Zwolle Win (1)13%
Draw (X)19%
PSV Eindhoven Win (2)68%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
71%
+0.5
100%
35%
+1.5
82%
12%
+2.5
35%
6%
+3.5
24%
0%
+4.5
12%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
29%
-0.5
0%
65%
-1.5
18%
88%
-2.5
65%
94%
-3.5
76%
100%
-4.5
88%
PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
PEC Zwolle — scored (home)1.24
PEC Zwolle — conceded (home)1.24
PSV Eindhoven — scored (away)2.53
PSV Eindhoven — conceded (away)1.12
Model expected combined goals3
Both Teams To Score
Yes50%
No50%
Rate per Team
PEC Zwolle — BTTS matches (home)47%
PSV Eindhoven — BTTS matches (away)71%
Combined (simple average)59%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.594%
Under 5.56%
Over 6.588%
Under 6.512%
Over 7.577%
Under 7.523%
Over 8.571%
Under 8.529%
Over 9.568%
Under 9.532%
Over 10.553%
Under 10.547%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.80
Per-Team Corners own matches
PEC Zwolle (home)
Corners for4.1
Corners against6.1
PSV Eindhoven (away)
Corners for6.7
Corners against4.6
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
PEC Zwolle
7
8
6
11
14
PSV Eindhoven
7
8
10
12
20
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.588%
Under 0.512%
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.565%
Under 2.535%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.1
Yellow Cards per Team
PEC Zwolle (home)
For1.7
PSV Eindhoven (away)
For2.1
Shots per Game
PEC Zwolle — total shots (home)9.9
PSV Eindhoven — total shots (away)16.0
Shots on Target
PEC Zwolle — on target (home)3.5
PSV Eindhoven — on target (away)7.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
PEC Zwolle
Inside the box6.12
Outside the box3.53
PSV Eindhoven
Inside the box12.15
Outside the box5.41
Player Shots PEC Zwolle
K. Kostons
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target26%
Y. Namli
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target23%
T. Oosting
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target18%
O. Velanas
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
S. Shoretire
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target4%
Player Shots PSV Eindhoven
I. Saibari
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target48%
R. Pepi
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target77%
+1.5 On Target35%
R. van Bommel
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target17%
G. Til
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target62%
+1.5 On Target21%
P. Wanner
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target14%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
PEC Zwolle xG (home)1.19
PSV Eindhoven xG (away)2.18
Average Possession
44.94%
Possession
60.85%
Team Comparison PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven
77.53%
Pass accuracy
86.21%
379.68
Passes per match
549.82
-0.25
Goals prevented
-0.46
11.53
Fouls committed
10.26
4.09
Goalkeeper saves
2.74
1.74
Offsides
1.65
17.29
Tackles per match
16.79
League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven prediction analysis
Review PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Eredivisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights