Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht

PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eredivisie 2025-08-31 12:30
PEC Zwolle
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
51%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Utrecht
Away

Prediction Summary

1
40%
X
26%
2
34%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

PEC Zwolle (Home)

Goals scored / match1.24
Goals conceded / match1.24
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate47%

Utrecht (Away)

Goals scored / match1.33
Goals conceded / match1.61
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate67%

Team Form last 5 matches

PEC Zwolle
LLWLD
Utrecht
DWWWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 78%
35% +1.5 44%
12% +2.5 11%
6% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
47% BTTS 67%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 51%. Model confidence is Low.

PEC Zwolle averages 1.24 goals scored at home, while Utrecht averages 1.33 goals scored away.

Model Strength
55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
40%
Draw
26%
Away Win
34%
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS Yes
55%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 PEC Zwolle(A) 1 - 1 Utrecht Draw
Aug 2025 PEC Zwolle 0 - 2 Utrecht Away
Feb 2025 PEC Zwolle 3 - 3 Utrecht Draw
Aug 2024 PEC Zwolle(A) 0 - 1 Utrecht Away
Apr 2024 PEC Zwolle(A) 1 - 5 Utrecht Away

In the last 5 meetings, PEC Zwolle won 0, drew 2 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

PEC Zwolle — unbeaten run (home)0
PEC Zwolle — scoring streak (home)0
Utrecht — winless run (away)1
Utrecht — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

PEC Zwolle Win (1)40%
Draw (X)26%
Utrecht Win (2)34%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 78%
35% +1.5 44%
12% +2.5 11%
6% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 22%
65% -1.5 56%
88% -2.5 89%
94% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

PEC Zwolle — scored (home)1.24
PEC Zwolle — conceded (home)1.24
Utrecht — scored (away)1.33
Utrecht — conceded (away)1.61
Model expected combined goals2.71

Both Teams To Score

Yes55%
No45%

Rate per Team

PEC Zwolle — BTTS matches (home)47%
Utrecht — BTTS matches (away)67%
Combined (simple average)57%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.589%
Under 5.511%
Over 6.583%
Under 6.517%
Over 7.569%
Under 7.531%
Over 8.569%
Under 8.531%
Over 9.560%
Under 9.540%
Over 10.549%
Under 10.551%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

PEC Zwolle (home)

Corners for4.1
Corners against6.1

Utrecht (away)

Corners for5.2
Corners against4.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

PEC Zwolle
7 8 6 11 14
Utrecht
12 11 7 15 12

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.3

Yellow Cards per Team

PEC Zwolle (home)

For1.7

Utrecht (away)

For1.8

Shots per Game

PEC Zwolle — total shots (home)9.9
Utrecht — total shots (away)13.2

Shots on Target

PEC Zwolle — on target (home)3.5
Utrecht — on target (away)5.1

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

PEC Zwolle

Inside the box6.12
Outside the box3.53

Utrecht

Inside the box10.39
Outside the box4.89

Player Shots PEC Zwolle

K. Kostons
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target26%
Y. Namli
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target23%
T. Oosting
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target18%
O. Velanas
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
S. Shoretire
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Utrecht

Ángel Alarcón
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target36%
V. Jensen
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target88%
+1.5 On Target13%
G. Zechiël
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target19%
Y. Cathline
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target14%
A. Stepanov
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

PEC Zwolle xG (home)1.19
Utrecht xG (away)1.51

Average Possession

44.94% Possession 46.53%

Team Comparison PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht

77.53% Pass accuracy 78.69%
379.68 Passes per match 398.92
-0.25 Goals prevented -0.15
11.53 Fouls committed 10.86
4.09 Goalkeeper saves 3.47
1.74 Offsides 1.25
17.29 Tackles per match 16.39

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht prediction analysis

Review PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eredivisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eredivisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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