What markets are included in the Penafiel vs Portimonense prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Penafiel vs Portimonense prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Penafiel vs Portimonense

Penafiel vs Portimonense prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Segunda Liga 2026-08-08 13:00

Penafiel

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

43%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Portimonense

Away

Prediction Summary

44%

27%

29%

Under 2.5

57%

BTTS No

52%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Penafiel (Home)

Goals scored / match1.12

Goals conceded / match0.88

Over 2.5 rate12%

BTTS rate35%

Portimonense (Away)

Goals scored / match1.18

Goals conceded / match1.59

Over 2.5 rate12%

BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Penafiel

LWLWL

Portimonense

WDWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

71% +0.5 71%

24% +1.5 35%

12% +2.5 12%

6% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

35% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.

Penafiel averages 1.12 goals scored at home, while Portimonense averages 1.18 goals scored away.

Model Strength

57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

44%

Draw

27%

Away Win

29%

Over 2.5

43%

BTTS Yes

48%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Penafiel 0 - 2 Portimonense Away

Aug 2025 Penafiel(A) 1 - 2 Portimonense Away

Feb 2025 Penafiel 3 - 0 Portimonense Home

Sep 2024 Penafiel(A) 2 - 0 Portimonense Home

Nov 2021 Penafiel 0 - 3 Portimonense Away

In the last 5 meetings, Penafiel won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Penafiel — unbeaten run (home)3

Penafiel — scoring streak (home)3

Portimonense — winless run (away)3

Portimonense — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Penafiel Win (1)44%

Draw (X)27%

Portimonense Win (2)29%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

71% +0.5 71%

24% +1.5 35%

12% +2.5 12%

6% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

29% -0.5 29%

76% -1.5 65%

88% -2.5 88%

94% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Penafiel vs Portimonense — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Penafiel — scored (home)1.12

Penafiel — conceded (home)0.88

Portimonense — scored (away)1.18

Portimonense — conceded (away)1.59

Model expected combined goals2.38

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%

No52%

Rate per Team

Penafiel — BTTS matches (home)35%

Portimonense — BTTS matches (away)53%

Combined (simple average)44%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.562%

Under 8.538%

Over 9.551%

Under 9.549%

Over 10.541%

Under 10.559%

Expected total corners (model prediction)9.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Penafiel (home)

Corners for4.7

Corners against5.2

Portimonense (away)

Corners for3.8

Corners against5.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Penafiel

Portimonense

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%

Under 0.53%

Over 1.594%

Under 1.56%

Over 2.594%

Under 2.56%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

Penafiel (home)

For2.5

Portimonense (away)

For2.5

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.539%

Under 19.561%

Over 22.530%

Under 22.570%

Over 25.522%

Under 25.578%

Expected total shots18.50

Penafiel

Shots Over 9.546%

Shots Over 11.534%

Shots Over 13.525%

Expected shots10.08

On Target Over 3.547%

On Target Over 4.531%

On Target Over 5.519%

Expected on target3.67

Portimonense

Shots Over 9.535%

Shots Over 11.524%

Shots Over 13.516%

Expected shots8.43

On Target Over 3.539%

On Target Over 4.524%

On Target Over 5.513%

Expected on target3.19

Shots per Game

Penafiel — total shots (home)12.7

Portimonense — total shots (away)11.0

Shots on Target

Penafiel — on target (home)4.3

Portimonense — on target (away)4.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Penafiel

Inside the box7.1

Outside the box5.2

Portimonense

Inside the box8.22

Outside the box4.89

Player Shots Penafiel

Zé Leite

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target25%

+1.5 On Target25%

Ãlvaro Santos

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target20%

Reko

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

S. Anzai

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target20%

+1.5 On Target0%

Gonçalo Negrão

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Portimonense

João Reis

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target33%

Sarará

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target100%

+1.5 On Target33%

Thauan Lara

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target0%

W. Cagro

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target0%

Xavier

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Penafiel xG (home)0

Portimonense xG (away)0

Average Possession

48.7% Possession 48.33%

Team Comparison Penafiel vs Portimonense

71.95% Pass accuracy 76.94%

350.2 Passes per match 345.11

0 Goals prevented 0

13.7 Fouls committed 14.56

3 Goalkeeper saves 2.78

1.7 Offsides 1

16.2 Tackles per match 14

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Penafiel vs Portimonense prediction and preview

Preview Penafiel vs Portimonense with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.

1X2 Over/Under 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Segunda Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights