Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders

Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Major League Soccer 2026-07-25 23:30
Philadelphia Union
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
57%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Seattle Sounders
Away

Prediction Summary

1
56%
X
22%
2
21%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Philadelphia Union (Home)

Goals scored / match2.05
Goals conceded / match0.95
Over 2.5 rate40%
BTTS rate55%

Seattle Sounders (Away)

Goals scored / match1.2
Goals conceded / match1.7
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate55%

Team Form last 5 matches

Philadelphia Union
WLWDL
Seattle Sounders
LLDWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

90% +0.5 65%
65% +1.5 30%
40% +2.5 20%
10% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%
55% BTTS 55%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.

Philadelphia Union averages 2.05 goals scored at home, while Seattle Sounders averages 1.2 goals scored away.

Model Strength
57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
56%
Draw
22%
Away Win
21%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
56%

Head-to-Head last 2

May 2024 Philadelphia Union 2 - 3 Seattle Sounders Away
May 2019 Philadelphia Union 0 - 0 Seattle Sounders Draw

In the last 2 meetings, Philadelphia Union won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Philadelphia Union — unbeaten run (home)1
Philadelphia Union — scoring streak (home)1
Seattle Sounders — winless run (away)3
Seattle Sounders — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Philadelphia Union Win (1)56%
Draw (X)22%
Seattle Sounders Win (2)21%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

90% +0.5 65%
65% +1.5 30%
40% +2.5 20%
10% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

10% -0.5 35%
35% -1.5 70%
60% -2.5 80%
90% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 100%

Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Philadelphia Union — scored (home)2.05
Philadelphia Union — conceded (home)0.95
Seattle Sounders — scored (away)1.2
Seattle Sounders — conceded (away)1.7
Model expected combined goals2.95

Both Teams To Score

Yes56%
No44%

Rate per Team

Philadelphia Union — BTTS matches (home)55%
Seattle Sounders — BTTS matches (away)55%
Combined (simple average)55%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.560%
Under 8.540%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Philadelphia Union (home)

Corners for7.1
Corners against3.9

Seattle Sounders (away)

Corners for5.6
Corners against4.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Philadelphia Union
16 12 11 11 14
Seattle Sounders
11 5 9 10 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Philadelphia Union (home)

For2.3

Seattle Sounders (away)

For1.8

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.578%
Under 19.522%
Over 22.564%
Under 22.536%
Over 25.549%
Under 25.551%
Expected total shots26.08

Philadelphia Union

Shots Over 9.585%
Shots Over 11.572%
Shots Over 13.557%
Expected shots14.89
On Target Over 3.574%
On Target Over 4.558%
On Target Over 5.542%
Expected on target5.22

Seattle Sounders

Shots Over 9.562%
Shots Over 11.544%
Shots Over 13.527%
Expected shots11.19
On Target Over 3.553%
On Target Over 4.535%
On Target Over 5.521%
Expected on target3.86

Shots per Game

Philadelphia Union — total shots (home)17.0
Seattle Sounders — total shots (away)14.0

Shots on Target

Philadelphia Union — on target (home)6.1
Seattle Sounders — on target (away)4.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Philadelphia Union

Inside the box9.38
Outside the box6.03

Seattle Sounders

Inside the box9.41
Outside the box4.76

Player Shots Philadelphia Union

M. Iloski
Shots on Target/Game2.1
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target31%
T. Baribo
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target22%
Cavan Sullivan
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target7%
B. Damiani
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target70%
+1.5 On Target22%
D. Jean-Jacques
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Seattle Sounders

A. Rusnák
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target33%
D. Musovski
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target29%
J. Ferreira
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target14%
O. Vargas
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target28%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. Morris
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target24%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Philadelphia Union xG (home)1.72
Seattle Sounders xG (away)1.76

Average Possession

48.16% Possession 54.16%

Team Comparison Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders

75.27% Pass accuracy 86.23%
390.65 Passes per match 520.08
0.17 Goals prevented -0.32
14.57 Fouls committed 11.16
2.14 Goalkeeper saves 3.03
1.59 Offsides 2.14
18.08 Tackles per match 15.34

League average xG this season is 1.48 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders prediction analysis

Review Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Major League Soccer.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Major League Soccer
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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