Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Ponte Preta vs Nautico Recife

Ponte Preta vs Nautico Recife prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Serie B 2026-08-14 22:30
Ponte Preta
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
60%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Nautico Recife
Away

Prediction Summary

1
38%
X
24%
2
38%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Ponte Preta (Home)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match2
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate100%

Nautico Recife (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match2
Over 2.5 rate25%
BTTS rate50%

Team Form last 5 matches

Ponte Preta
LLLLL
Nautico Recife
DWLLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 50%
0% +1.5 25%
0% +2.5 25%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
100% BTTS 50%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is Medium.

Ponte Preta averages 1 goals scored at home, while Nautico Recife averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
38%
Draw
24%
Away Win
38%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Yes
60%

Head-to-Head last 5

Nov 2022 Ponte Preta(A) 1 - 0 Nautico Recife Home
Jul 2022 Ponte Preta 1 - 0 Nautico Recife Home
Oct 2021 Ponte Preta 2 - 3 Nautico Recife Away
Jul 2021 Ponte Preta(A) 1 - 1 Nautico Recife Draw
Jan 2021 Ponte Preta 2 - 0 Nautico Recife Home

In the last 5 meetings, Ponte Preta won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Ponte Preta — unbeaten run (home)0
Ponte Preta — scoring streak (home)2
Nautico Recife — winless run (away)4
Nautico Recife — clean sheets (away, last 4)1 of 4

1X2 Probability model

Ponte Preta Win (1)38%
Draw (X)24%
Nautico Recife Win (2)38%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 50%
0% +1.5 25%
0% +2.5 25%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 50%
100% -1.5 75%
100% -2.5 75%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Ponte Preta vs Nautico Recife — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Ponte Preta — scored (home)1
Ponte Preta — conceded (home)2
Nautico Recife — scored (away)1
Nautico Recife — conceded (away)2
Model expected combined goals3

Both Teams To Score

Yes60%
No40%

Rate per Team

Ponte Preta — BTTS matches (home)100%
Nautico Recife — BTTS matches (away)50%
Combined (simple average)75%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Ponte Preta (home)

Corners for4.0
Corners against2.0

Nautico Recife (away)

Corners for5.5
Corners against4.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Ponte Preta
8 11 6 12
Nautico Recife
8 11 7 15 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.575%
Under 2.525%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3

Yellow Cards per Team

Ponte Preta (home)

For1.0

Nautico Recife (away)

For2.0

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.578%
Under 19.522%
Over 22.564%
Under 22.536%
Over 25.549%
Under 25.551%
Expected total shots26.04

Ponte Preta

Shots Over 9.583%
Shots Over 11.570%
Shots Over 13.554%
Expected shots14.52
On Target Over 3.567%
On Target Over 4.550%
On Target Over 5.533%
Expected on target4.69

Nautico Recife

Shots Over 9.565%
Shots Over 11.547%
Shots Over 13.530%
Expected shots11.52
On Target Over 3.543%
On Target Over 4.525%
On Target Over 5.513%
Expected on target3.36

Shots per Game

Ponte Preta — total shots (home)12.0
Nautico Recife — total shots (away)13.5

Shots on Target

Ponte Preta — on target (home)3.0
Nautico Recife — on target (away)3.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Ponte Preta

Inside the box5.5
Outside the box5.25

Nautico Recife

Inside the box8.57
Outside the box7.57

Player Shots Ponte Preta

Élvis
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target67%
Brandão
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target25%
Danilo Barcelos
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target0%
Lucas Cunha
Shots on Target/Game0
+0.5 On Target0%
+1.5 On Target0%
Rodriguinho
Shots on Target/Game0
+0.5 On Target0%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Nautico Recife

Derek
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target17%
Jean Carlos
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target33%
Victor Andrade
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
Dodozinho
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target100%
+1.5 On Target33%
Kaua Almeida da Costa
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target25%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Ponte Preta xG (home)0.97
Nautico Recife xG (away)1.14

Average Possession

41% Possession 59%

Team Comparison Ponte Preta vs Nautico Recife

74.75% Pass accuracy 80.21%
264.25 Passes per match 426.29
-0.13 Goals prevented 0.01
18 Fouls committed 15.29
3 Goalkeeper saves 3.71
0.75 Offsides 1.57
17.25 Tackles per match 12.43

League average xG this season is 1.13 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Ponte Preta vs Nautico Recife prediction and preview

Preview Ponte Preta vs Nautico Recife with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.

1X2 Over/Under 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie B
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top