Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Portsmouth vs Coventry

Portsmouth vs Coventry prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-10-21 18:45
Portsmouth
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
62%
Confidence
Medium
Score
0-2
Coventry
Away

Prediction Summary

1
16%
X
19%
2
65%
Over 2.5
62%
BTTS Yes
56%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Portsmouth (Home)

Goals scored / match1.09
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate9%
BTTS rate48%

Coventry (Away)

Goals scored / match2
Goals conceded / match1.13
Over 2.5 rate26%
BTTS rate57%

Team Form last 5 matches

Portsmouth
DWLWW
Coventry
WWWDD

Goals Comparison rate per team

70% +0.5 87%
30% +1.5 57%
9% +2.5 26%
0% +3.5 22%
0% +4.5 9%
48% BTTS 57%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 62%. Model confidence is Medium.

Portsmouth averages 1.09 goals scored at home, while Coventry averages 2 goals scored away.

Model Strength
65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
16%
Draw
19%
Away Win
65%
Over 2.5
62%
BTTS Yes
56%

Head-to-Head last 4

Apr 2026 Portsmouth(A) 1 - 5 Coventry Away
Oct 2025 Portsmouth 1 - 2 Coventry Away
Apr 2025 Portsmouth(A) 0 - 1 Coventry Away
Dec 2024 Portsmouth 4 - 1 Coventry Home

In the last 4 meetings, Portsmouth won 1, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Portsmouth — unbeaten run (home)4
Portsmouth — scoring streak (home)4
Coventry — winless run (away)0
Coventry — clean sheets (away, last 5)4 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Portsmouth Win (1)16%
Draw (X)19%
Coventry Win (2)65%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

70% +0.5 87%
30% +1.5 57%
9% +2.5 26%
0% +3.5 22%
0% +4.5 9%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

30% -0.5 13%
70% -1.5 43%
91% -2.5 74%
100% -3.5 78%
100% -4.5 91%

Portsmouth vs Coventry — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Portsmouth — scored (home)1.09
Portsmouth — conceded (home)1
Coventry — scored (away)2
Coventry — conceded (away)1.13
Model expected combined goals3.2

Both Teams To Score

Yes56%
No44%

Rate per Team

Portsmouth — BTTS matches (home)48%
Coventry — BTTS matches (away)57%
Combined (simple average)52.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.596%
Under 5.54%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.574%
Under 7.526%
Over 8.568%
Under 8.532%
Over 9.557%
Under 9.543%
Over 10.546%
Under 10.554%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Portsmouth (home)

Corners for6.3
Corners against4.3

Coventry (away)

Corners for4.7
Corners against4.9

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Portsmouth
10 12 3 9 12
Coventry
9 6 3 9 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.596%
Under 1.54%
Over 2.581%
Under 2.519%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Portsmouth (home)

For1.7

Coventry (away)

For1.7

Shots per Game

Portsmouth — total shots (home)15.4
Coventry — total shots (away)14.6

Shots on Target

Portsmouth — on target (home)4.3
Coventry — on target (away)5.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Portsmouth

Inside the box7.93
Outside the box4.26

Coventry

Inside the box11.46
Outside the box4.85

Player Shots Portsmouth

J. Murphy
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target6%
C. Lang
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target25%
M. Kirk
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
F. Bianchini
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Alli
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Coventry

H. Wright
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target25%
B. Thomas-Asante
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target16%
E. Simms
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target23%
E. Mason-Clark
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target21%
T. Sakamoto
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target11%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Portsmouth xG (home)1.11
Coventry xG (away)1.86

Average Possession

50.43% Possession 55.26%

Team Comparison Portsmouth vs Coventry

73.96% Pass accuracy 80.43%
370.83 Passes per match 438.33
-0.09 Goals prevented -0.05
10.15 Fouls committed 9.41
2.6 Goalkeeper saves 2.7
1.77 Offsides 2.37
13.7 Tackles per match 13.76

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Portsmouth vs Coventry prediction analysis

Review Portsmouth vs Coventry with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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