Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Portsmouth vs Wrexham

Portsmouth vs Wrexham prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Championship 2025-11-05 20:00
Portsmouth
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
41%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Wrexham
Away

Prediction Summary

1
29%
X
28%
2
43%
Under 2.5
59%
BTTS No
54%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Portsmouth (Home)

Goals scored / match1.09
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate9%
BTTS rate48%

Wrexham (Away)

Goals scored / match1.22
Goals conceded / match1.22
Over 2.5 rate9%
BTTS rate57%

Team Form last 5 matches

Portsmouth
DWLWW
Wrexham
DLWWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

70% +0.5 78%
30% +1.5 35%
9% +2.5 9%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
48% BTTS 57%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.

Portsmouth averages 1.09 goals scored at home, while Wrexham averages 1.22 goals scored away.

Model Strength
59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
29%
Draw
28%
Away Win
43%
Over 2.5
41%
BTTS Yes
46%

Head-to-Head last 2

Feb 2026 Portsmouth(A) 1 - 2 Wrexham Away
Nov 2025 Portsmouth 0 - 0 Wrexham Draw

In the last 2 meetings, Portsmouth won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Portsmouth — unbeaten run (home)4
Portsmouth — scoring streak (home)4
Wrexham — winless run (away)1
Wrexham — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Portsmouth Win (1)29%
Draw (X)28%
Wrexham Win (2)43%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

70% +0.5 78%
30% +1.5 35%
9% +2.5 9%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

30% -0.5 22%
70% -1.5 65%
91% -2.5 91%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Portsmouth vs Wrexham — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Portsmouth — scored (home)1.09
Portsmouth — conceded (home)1
Wrexham — scored (away)1.22
Wrexham — conceded (away)1.22
Model expected combined goals2.32

Both Teams To Score

Yes46%
No54%

Rate per Team

Portsmouth — BTTS matches (home)48%
Wrexham — BTTS matches (away)57%
Combined (simple average)52.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.596%
Under 5.54%
Over 6.585%
Under 6.515%
Over 7.578%
Under 7.522%
Over 8.568%
Under 8.532%
Over 9.561%
Under 9.539%
Over 10.544%
Under 10.556%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Portsmouth (home)

Corners for6.3
Corners against4.3

Wrexham (away)

Corners for3.7
Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Portsmouth
10 12 3 9 12
Wrexham
9 8 14 9 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.596%
Under 1.54%
Over 2.583%
Under 2.517%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4

Yellow Cards per Team

Portsmouth (home)

For1.7

Wrexham (away)

For2.0

Shots per Game

Portsmouth — total shots (home)15.4
Wrexham — total shots (away)8.5

Shots on Target

Portsmouth — on target (home)4.3
Wrexham — on target (away)2.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Portsmouth

Inside the box7.93
Outside the box4.26

Wrexham

Inside the box7.5
Outside the box3.8

Player Shots Portsmouth

J. Murphy
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target6%
C. Lang
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target25%
M. Kirk
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
F. Bianchini
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target20%
M. Alli
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Wrexham

K. Moore
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target49%
+1.5 On Target18%
J. Windass
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target22%
O. Rathbone
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target4%
R. Hardie
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
S. Smith
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Portsmouth xG (home)1.11
Wrexham xG (away)1.2

Average Possession

50.43% Possession 48.2%

Team Comparison Portsmouth vs Wrexham

73.96% Pass accuracy 77.48%
370.83 Passes per match 412.91
-0.09 Goals prevented -0.12
10.15 Fouls committed 9.93
2.6 Goalkeeper saves 3.04
1.77 Offsides 2.14
13.7 Tackles per match 15.37

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Portsmouth vs Wrexham prediction analysis

Review Portsmouth vs Wrexham with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Championship.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Championship
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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