Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas

Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Liga MX 2026-08-01 01:00
Puebla
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
57%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Guadalajara Chivas
Away

Prediction Summary

1
31%
X
24%
2
45%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
59%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Puebla (Home)

Goals scored / match1.18
Goals conceded / match1.88
Over 2.5 rate12%
BTTS rate53%

Guadalajara Chivas (Away)

Goals scored / match1.4
Goals conceded / match1.5
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate60%

Team Form last 5 matches

Puebla
LWLLL
Guadalajara Chivas
WLLDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

59% +0.5 75%
41% +1.5 50%
12% +2.5 15%
6% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
53% BTTS 60%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.

Puebla averages 1.18 goals scored at home, while Guadalajara Chivas averages 1.4 goals scored away.

Model Strength
59%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
31%
Draw
24%
Away Win
45%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
59%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Puebla(A) 0 - 5 Guadalajara Chivas Away
Sep 2025 Puebla 0 - 2 Guadalajara Chivas Away
Apr 2025 Puebla(A) 0 - 1 Guadalajara Chivas Away
Oct 2024 Puebla 1 - 0 Guadalajara Chivas Home
Apr 2024 Puebla(A) 2 - 3 Guadalajara Chivas Away

In the last 5 meetings, Puebla won 1, drew 0 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Puebla — unbeaten run (home)0
Puebla — scoring streak (home)1
Guadalajara Chivas — winless run (away)4
Guadalajara Chivas — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Puebla Win (1)31%
Draw (X)24%
Guadalajara Chivas Win (2)45%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

59% +0.5 75%
41% +1.5 50%
12% +2.5 15%
6% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

41% -0.5 25%
59% -1.5 50%
88% -2.5 85%
94% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Puebla — scored (home)1.18
Puebla — conceded (home)1.88
Guadalajara Chivas — scored (away)1.4
Guadalajara Chivas — conceded (away)1.5
Model expected combined goals2.98

Both Teams To Score

Yes59%
No41%

Rate per Team

Puebla — BTTS matches (home)53%
Guadalajara Chivas — BTTS matches (away)60%
Combined (simple average)56.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Puebla (home)

Corners for4.4
Corners against6.2

Guadalajara Chivas (away)

Corners for4.9
Corners against3.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Puebla
9 7 15 9 10
Guadalajara Chivas
14 7 15 10 21

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.592%
Under 1.58%
Over 2.578%
Under 2.522%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Puebla (home)

For2.2

Guadalajara Chivas (away)

For2.2

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.577%
Under 19.523%
Over 22.564%
Under 22.536%
Over 25.551%
Under 25.549%
Expected total shots26.66

Puebla

Shots Over 9.575%
Shots Over 11.560%
Shots Over 13.545%
Expected shots13.38
On Target Over 3.561%
On Target Over 4.545%
On Target Over 5.530%
Expected on target4.45

Guadalajara Chivas

Shots Over 9.575%
Shots Over 11.560%
Shots Over 13.544%
Expected shots13.28
On Target Over 3.558%
On Target Over 4.541%
On Target Over 5.527%
Expected on target4.24

Shots per Game

Puebla — total shots (home)13.7
Guadalajara Chivas — total shots (away)14.4

Shots on Target

Puebla — on target (home)4.6
Guadalajara Chivas — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Puebla

Inside the box6.97
Outside the box5.26

Guadalajara Chivas

Inside the box9.48
Outside the box6.55

Player Shots Puebla

I. Maestro Puch
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target20%
I. Moreno
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target5%
+1.5 On Target5%
E. Guerra
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target22%
E. Gómez
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
L. Rey
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target15%
+1.5 On Target4%

Player Shots Guadalajara Chivas

A. González
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target33%
Santiago Sandoval
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target15%
B. González
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target12%
E. Álvarez
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target13%
R. Alvarado
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target19%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Puebla xG (home)0.91
Guadalajara Chivas xG (away)1.66

Average Possession

48.03% Possession 56.65%

Team Comparison Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas

80.89% Pass accuracy 85.71%
379.85 Passes per match 479.55
-0.04 Goals prevented -0.27
12.56 Fouls committed 12
3.03 Goalkeeper saves 2.69
1.4 Offsides 2.13
15.97 Tackles per match 13.95

League average xG this season is 1.32 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction and preview

Preview Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.

1X2 Over/Under 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Liga MX
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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