What markets are included in the Qarabag vs Ajax prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Qarabag vs Ajax prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Qarabag vs Ajax

Qarabag vs Ajax prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Champions League 2025-12-10 17:45

Qarabag

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

79%

Confidence

High

Score

2-1

Ajax

Away

Prediction Summary

63%

17%

19%

Over 2.5

79%

BTTS Yes

72%

Confidence

High

Market Evidence

Qarabag (Home)

Goals scored / match2.25

Goals conceded / match2.25

Over 2.5 rate25%

BTTS rate75%

Ajax (Away)

Goals scored / match1.75

Goals conceded / match3

Over 2.5 rate25%

BTTS rate75%

Team Form last 5 matches

Qarabag

LLLWL

Ajax

LWWLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 75%

75% +1.5 50%

25% +2.5 25%

13% +3.5 25%

13% +4.5 0%

75% BTTS 75%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 79%. Model confidence is High.

Qarabag averages 2.25 goals scored at home, while Ajax averages 1.75 goals scored away.

Model Strength

79%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

63%

Draw

17%

Away Win

19%

Over 2.5

79%

BTTS Yes

72%

Head-to-Head last 2

Dec 2025 Qarabag 2 - 4 Ajax Away

Oct 2024 Qarabag 0 - 3 Ajax Away

In the last 2 meetings, Qarabag won 0, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Qarabag — unbeaten run (home)0

Qarabag — scoring streak (home)8

Ajax — winless run (away)0

Ajax — clean sheets (away, last 4)0 of 4

1X2 Probability model

Qarabag Win (1)63%

Draw (X)17%

Ajax Win (2)19%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 75%

75% +1.5 50%

25% +2.5 25%

13% +3.5 25%

13% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 25%

25% -1.5 50%

75% -2.5 75%

87% -3.5 75%

87% -4.5 100%

Qarabag vs Ajax — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Qarabag — scored (home)2.25

Qarabag — conceded (home)2.25

Ajax — scored (away)1.75

Ajax — conceded (away)3

Model expected combined goals4.18

Both Teams To Score

Yes72%

No28%

Rate per Team

Qarabag — BTTS matches (home)75%

Ajax — BTTS matches (away)75%

Combined (simple average)75%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.592%

Under 4.58%

Over 5.592%

Under 5.58%

Over 6.592%

Under 6.58%

Over 7.579%

Under 7.521%

Over 8.571%

Under 8.529%

Over 9.571%

Under 9.529%

Over 10.542%

Under 10.558%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Qarabag (home)

Corners for4.3

Corners against5.0

Ajax (away)

Corners for4.5

Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Qarabag

10 8 15 14 15

Ajax

5 14 10 12 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.571%

Under 1.529%

Over 2.571%

Under 2.529%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Qarabag (home)

For1.5

Ajax (away)

For1.8

Shots per Game

Qarabag — total shots (home)10.8

Ajax — total shots (away)12.5

Shots on Target

Qarabag — on target (home)4.0

Ajax — on target (away)4.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Qarabag

Inside the box6.25

Outside the box4.08

Ajax

Inside the box6

Outside the box4.38

Player Shots Qarabag

C. Durán

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target70%

+1.5 On Target30%

Leandro Andrade

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target0%

O. Kashchuk

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target0%

E. Addai

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target25%

+1.5 On Target8%

Joni Montiel

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Ajax

K. Dolberg

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target20%

O. Gloukh

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target13%

O. Edvardsen

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

Rayane Bounida

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target0%

J. Mokio

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Qarabag xG (home)1.09

Ajax xG (away)1.17

Average Possession

45.25% Possession 53.75%

Team Comparison Qarabag vs Ajax

80.33% Pass accuracy 87%

389.08 Passes per match 521.63

-0.34 Goals prevented -0.36

7.17 Fouls committed 11.88

4.08 Goalkeeper saves 3.38

1.25 Offsides 1.14

14.58 Tackles per match 15.63

League average xG this season is 1.65 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Qarabag vs Ajax prediction analysis

Review Qarabag vs Ajax with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights