Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Qarabag vs Lyon

Qarabag vs Lyon prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Europa League 2024-11-28 17:45
Qarabag
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
80%
Confidence
High
Score
1-2
Lyon
Away

Prediction Summary

1
15%
X
15%
2
70%
Over 2.5
80%
BTTS Yes
70%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Qarabag (Home)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match3
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate75%

Lyon (Away)

Goals scored / match2.83
Goals conceded / match1.67
Over 2.5 rate67%
BTTS rate83%

Team Form last 5 matches

Qarabag
LLLLW
Lyon
LDWWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

75% +0.5 83%
25% +1.5 83%
0% +2.5 67%
0% +3.5 50%
0% +4.5 0%
75% BTTS 83%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 80%. Model confidence is High.

Qarabag averages 1 goals scored at home, while Lyon averages 2.83 goals scored away.

Model Strength
80%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
15%
Draw
15%
Away Win
70%
Over 2.5
80%
BTTS Yes
70%

Head-to-Head last 1

Nov 2024 Qarabag 1 - 4 Lyon Away

In the last 1 meetings, Qarabag won 0, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Qarabag — unbeaten run (home)0
Qarabag — scoring streak (home)2
Lyon — winless run (away)1
Lyon — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Qarabag Win (1)15%
Draw (X)15%
Lyon Win (2)70%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

75% +0.5 83%
25% +1.5 83%
0% +2.5 67%
0% +3.5 50%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

25% -0.5 17%
75% -1.5 17%
100% -2.5 33%
100% -3.5 50%
100% -4.5 100%

Qarabag vs Lyon — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Qarabag — scored (home)1
Qarabag — conceded (home)3
Lyon — scored (away)2.83
Lyon — conceded (away)1.67
Model expected combined goals4.25

Both Teams To Score

Yes70%
No30%

Rate per Team

Qarabag — BTTS matches (home)75%
Lyon — BTTS matches (away)83%
Combined (simple average)79%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.579%
Under 5.521%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.579%
Under 7.521%
Over 8.546%
Under 8.554%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Qarabag (home)

Corners for5.5
Corners against2.5

Lyon (away)

Corners for4.8
Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Qarabag
13 8 6 11 10
Lyon
15 11 4 13 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Qarabag (home)

For2.0

Lyon (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Qarabag — total shots (home)10.0
Lyon — total shots (away)15.5

Shots on Target

Qarabag — on target (home)1.8
Lyon — on target (away)7.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Qarabag

Inside the box6.13
Outside the box4

Lyon

Inside the box11.83
Outside the box5.33

Player Shots Qarabag

Juninho
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target33%
A. Zoubir
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target0%
T. Bayramov
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target0%
E. Cəfərquliyev
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target0%
Y. Benzia
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Lyon

T. Almada
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
P. Akouokou
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
E. Nuamah
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%
M. Fofana
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target30%
R. Cherki
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target33%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Qarabag xG (home)1.14
Lyon xG (away)1.88

Average Possession

55.25% Possession 56.42%

Team Comparison Qarabag vs Lyon

82.5% Pass accuracy 85.33%
475.25 Passes per match 545.83
0.07 Goals prevented 0.12
9.88 Fouls committed 11.5
4.13 Goalkeeper saves 3.58
1.88 Offsides 2
23.25 Tackles per match 17.5

League average xG this season is 1.47 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Qarabag vs Lyon prediction analysis

Review Qarabag vs Lyon with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Europa League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Europa League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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