Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
La Liga 2026-08-20 19:00
Rayo Vallecano
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Rayo Vallecano
Probability
50%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Alaves
Away

Prediction Summary

1
50%
X
27%
2
23%
Under 2.5
58%
BTTS No
55%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Rayo Vallecano (Home)

Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match0.79
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate53%

Alaves (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1.63
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate53%

Team Form last 5 matches

Rayo Vallecano
WWDDW
Alaves
LWWDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

84% +0.5 63%
26% +1.5 21%
16% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%
53% BTTS 53%

Model Insight

The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Medium.

Rayo Vallecano averages 1.26 goals scored at home, while Alaves averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
58%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
50%
Draw
27%
Away Win
23%
Over 2.5
42%
BTTS Yes
45%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Rayo Vallecano(A) 2 - 1 Alaves Home
Jan 2026 Rayo Vallecano(A) 0 - 2 Alaves Away
Oct 2025 Rayo Vallecano 1 - 0 Alaves Home
Mar 2025 Rayo Vallecano(A) 2 - 0 Alaves Home
Oct 2024 Rayo Vallecano 1 - 0 Alaves Home

In the last 5 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 4, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Rayo Vallecano — unbeaten run (home)9
Rayo Vallecano — scoring streak (home)12
Alaves — winless run (away)0
Alaves — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Rayo Vallecano Win (1)50%
Draw (X)27%
Alaves Win (2)23%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

84% +0.5 63%
26% +1.5 21%
16% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

16% -0.5 37%
74% -1.5 79%
84% -2.5 89%
100% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 100%

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Rayo Vallecano — scored (home)1.26
Rayo Vallecano — conceded (home)0.79
Alaves — scored (away)1
Alaves — conceded (away)1.63
Model expected combined goals2.34

Both Teams To Score

Yes45%
No55%

Rate per Team

Rayo Vallecano — BTTS matches (home)53%
Alaves — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)53%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Rayo Vallecano (home)

Corners for6.6
Corners against4.9

Alaves (away)

Corners for3.9
Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Rayo Vallecano
5 14 6 10 15
Alaves
11 10 10 7 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.6

Yellow Cards per Team

Rayo Vallecano (home)

For2.2

Alaves (away)

For2.8

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.573%
Under 19.527%
Over 22.559%
Under 22.541%
Over 25.546%
Under 25.554%
Expected total shots25.54

Rayo Vallecano

Shots Over 9.580%
Shots Over 11.567%
Shots Over 13.552%
Expected shots14.45
On Target Over 3.568%
On Target Over 4.552%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.92

Alaves

Shots Over 9.560%
Shots Over 11.542%
Shots Over 13.528%
Expected shots11.08
On Target Over 3.549%
On Target Over 4.532%
On Target Over 5.519%
Expected on target3.69

Shots per Game

Rayo Vallecano — total shots (home)16.5
Alaves — total shots (away)11.4

Shots on Target

Rayo Vallecano — on target (home)5.8
Alaves — on target (away)3.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Rayo Vallecano

Inside the box7.76
Outside the box6.21

Alaves

Inside the box7.76
Outside the box4.39

Player Shots Rayo Vallecano

Jorge de Frutos
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target17%
Sergio Camello
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target18%
Álvaro García
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target13%
Ilias Akhomach
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target9%
Isi Palazón
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Alaves

Toni Martínez
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target59%
+1.5 On Target24%
L. Boyé
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target17%
I. Diabate
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target10%
A. Rebbach
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%
F. Garcés
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target10%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Rayo Vallecano xG (home)1.39
Alaves xG (away)1.23

Average Possession

53.45% Possession 48.08%

Team Comparison Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves

81.66% Pass accuracy 79.45%
417.32 Passes per match 404.45
0.08 Goals prevented -0.06
13.45 Fouls committed 14.92
2.95 Goalkeeper saves 2.62
2.14 Offsides 2.18
18.18 Tackles per match 18.24

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves prediction analysis

Review Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top