Prediction Analysis: Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
La Liga
2024-12-01
17:30
Rayo Vallecano
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
48%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Athletic Club
Away
Prediction Summary
1
35%
X
26%
2
39%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Rayo Vallecano (Home)
Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate68%
Athletic Club (Away)
Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match0.84
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate53%
Team Form last 5 matches
Rayo Vallecano
DWDWW
Athletic Club
LWWWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
84%
+0.5
74%
32%
+1.5
37%
11%
+2.5
5%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
68%
BTTS
53%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 48%. Model confidence is Low.
Rayo Vallecano averages 1.26 goals scored at home, while Athletic Club averages 1.16 goals scored away.
Model Strength
53%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
35%
Draw
26%
Away Win
39%
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
Head-to-Head last 5
Feb 2026
Rayo Vallecano
1 - 1
Athletic Club
Draw
Aug 2025
Rayo Vallecano(A)
0 - 1
Athletic Club
Away
Apr 2025
Rayo Vallecano(A)
1 - 3
Athletic Club
Away
Dec 2024
Rayo Vallecano
1 - 2
Athletic Club
Away
May 2024
Rayo Vallecano
0 - 1
Athletic Club
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.
Current Streaks
Rayo Vallecano — unbeaten run (home)4
Rayo Vallecano — scoring streak (home)0
Athletic Club — winless run (away)0
Athletic Club — clean sheets (away, last 5)4 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Rayo Vallecano Win (1)35%
Draw (X)26%
Athletic Club Win (2)39%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
84%
+0.5
74%
32%
+1.5
37%
11%
+2.5
5%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
16%
-0.5
26%
68%
-1.5
63%
89%
-2.5
95%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Rayo Vallecano — scored (home)1.26
Rayo Vallecano — conceded (home)1.37
Athletic Club — scored (away)1.16
Athletic Club — conceded (away)0.84
Model expected combined goals2.58
Both Teams To Score
Yes53%
No47%
Rate per Team
Rayo Vallecano — BTTS matches (home)68%
Athletic Club — BTTS matches (away)53%
Combined (simple average)60.5%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.598%
Under 5.52%
Over 6.590%
Under 6.510%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.553%
Under 8.547%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.60
Per-Team Corners own matches
Rayo Vallecano (home)
Corners for5.7
Corners against3.9
Athletic Club (away)
Corners for4.9
Corners against4.7
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Rayo Vallecano
10
16
17
11
13
Athletic Club
10
11
7
8
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.582%
Under 2.518%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4
Yellow Cards per Team
Rayo Vallecano (home)
For2.3
Athletic Club (away)
For1.6
Shots per Game
Rayo Vallecano — total shots (home)15.7
Athletic Club — total shots (away)11.1
Shots on Target
Rayo Vallecano — on target (home)5.6
Athletic Club — on target (away)3.4
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Rayo Vallecano
Inside the box7.68
Outside the box5.87
Athletic Club
Inside the box8.16
Outside the box4.16
Player Shots Rayo Vallecano
Ó. Trejo
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target5%
+1.5 On Target5%
Sergio Camello
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target9%
Sergi Guardiola
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target6%
Pep Chavarría
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target3%
Álvaro García
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target14%
Player Shots Athletic Club
Ander Herrera
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
De Marcos
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target4%
+1.5 On Target4%
I. Williams
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target20%
Mikel Vesga
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target8%
+1.5 On Target4%
Nico Williams
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target21%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Rayo Vallecano xG (home)1.2
Athletic Club xG (away)1.4
Average Possession
51.68%
Possession
48.45%
Team Comparison Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club
79.29%
Pass accuracy
80.39%
420.82
Passes per match
409.08
0.06
Goals prevented
0.03
13.74
Fouls committed
12.68
2.95
Goalkeeper saves
2.24
2.26
Offsides
1.79
16.68
Tackles per match
15.11
League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club prediction analysis
Review Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights