What markets are included in the Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid

Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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La Liga 2024-09-22 19:00

Rayo Vallecano

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

43%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Atletico Madrid

Away

Prediction Summary

28%

27%

45%

Under 2.5

57%

BTTS No

52%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Rayo Vallecano (Home)

Goals scored / match1.26

Goals conceded / match1.37

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate68%

Atletico Madrid (Away)

Goals scored / match1.37

Goals conceded / match0.79

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Rayo Vallecano

DWDWW

Atletico Madrid

WWLWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

84% +0.5 74%

32% +1.5 32%

11% +2.5 16%

0% +3.5 11%

0% +4.5 5%

68% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 43%. Model confidence is Medium.

Rayo Vallecano averages 1.26 goals scored at home, while Atletico Madrid averages 1.37 goals scored away.

Model Strength

57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

28%

Draw

27%

Away Win

45%

Over 2.5

43%

BTTS Yes

48%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Rayo Vallecano 3 - 0 Atletico Madrid Home

Sep 2025 Rayo Vallecano(A) 2 - 3 Atletico Madrid Away

Apr 2025 Rayo Vallecano(A) 0 - 3 Atletico Madrid Away

Sep 2024 Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Atletico Madrid Draw

Jan 2024 Rayo Vallecano(A) 1 - 2 Atletico Madrid Away

In the last 5 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Rayo Vallecano — unbeaten run (home)4

Rayo Vallecano — scoring streak (home)0

Atletico Madrid — winless run (away)0

Atletico Madrid — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Rayo Vallecano Win (1)28%

Draw (X)27%

Atletico Madrid Win (2)45%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

84% +0.5 74%

32% +1.5 32%

11% +2.5 16%

0% +3.5 11%

0% +4.5 5%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

16% -0.5 26%

68% -1.5 68%

89% -2.5 84%

100% -3.5 89%

100% -4.5 95%

Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Rayo Vallecano — scored (home)1.26

Rayo Vallecano — conceded (home)1.37

Atletico Madrid — scored (away)1.37

Atletico Madrid — conceded (away)0.79

Model expected combined goals2.4

Both Teams To Score

Yes48%

No52%

Rate per Team

Rayo Vallecano — BTTS matches (home)68%

Atletico Madrid — BTTS matches (away)42%

Combined (simple average)55%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%

Under 4.52%

Over 5.590%

Under 5.510%

Over 6.582%

Under 6.518%

Over 7.563%

Under 7.537%

Over 8.540%

Under 8.560%

Over 9.534%

Under 9.566%

Over 10.529%

Under 10.571%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Rayo Vallecano (home)

Corners for5.7

Corners against3.9

Atletico Madrid (away)

Corners for4.2

Corners against4.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Rayo Vallecano

10 16 17 11 13

Atletico Madrid

8 6 8 11 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.592%

Under 0.58%

Over 1.589%

Under 1.511%

Over 2.584%

Under 2.516%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Rayo Vallecano (home)

For2.3

Atletico Madrid (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Rayo Vallecano — total shots (home)15.7

Atletico Madrid — total shots (away)10.1

Shots on Target

Rayo Vallecano — on target (home)5.6

Atletico Madrid — on target (away)3.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Rayo Vallecano

Inside the box7.68

Outside the box5.87

Atletico Madrid

Inside the box8.45

Outside the box3.89

Player Shots Rayo Vallecano

Ó. Trejo

Shots on Target/Game2

+0.5 On Target5%

+1.5 On Target5%

Sergio Camello

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target26%

+1.5 On Target9%

Sergi Guardiola

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target13%

+1.5 On Target6%

Pep Chavarría

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target6%

+1.5 On Target3%

Álvaro García

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target53%

+1.5 On Target14%

Player Shots Atletico Madrid

A. Sørloth

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target66%

+1.5 On Target26%

J. Álvarez

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target65%

+1.5 On Target24%

Robin Le Normand

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target7%

+1.5 On Target4%

A. Griezmann

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target34%

+1.5 On Target11%

C. Gallagher

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target9%

+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Rayo Vallecano xG (home)1.2

Atletico Madrid xG (away)1.73

Average Possession

51.68% Possession 52.53%

Team Comparison Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid

79.29% Pass accuracy 84.61%

420.82 Passes per match 518.08

0.06 Goals prevented 0.02

13.74 Fouls committed 10.84

2.95 Goalkeeper saves 2.32

2.26 Offsides 2.12

16.68 Tackles per match 16.29

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid prediction analysis

Review Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights