Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca

Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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La Liga 2025-05-24 19:00
Rayo Vallecano
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
44%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Mallorca
Away

Prediction Summary

1
40%
X
27%
2
32%
Under 2.5
56%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Rayo Vallecano (Home)

Goals scored / match1.26
Goals conceded / match1.37
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate68%

Mallorca (Away)

Goals scored / match0.79
Goals conceded / match1.21
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate37%

Team Form last 5 matches

Rayo Vallecano
DWDWW
Mallorca
DLLWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

84% +0.5 53%
32% +1.5 21%
11% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
68% BTTS 37%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 44%. Model confidence is Medium.

Rayo Vallecano averages 1.26 goals scored at home, while Mallorca averages 0.79 goals scored away.

Model Strength
56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
40%
Draw
27%
Away Win
32%
Over 2.5
44%
BTTS Yes
50%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Rayo Vallecano(A) 0 - 3 Mallorca Away
Jan 2026 Rayo Vallecano 2 - 1 Mallorca Home
May 2025 Rayo Vallecano 0 - 0 Mallorca Draw
Oct 2024 Rayo Vallecano(A) 0 - 1 Mallorca Away
Feb 2024 Rayo Vallecano(A) 1 - 2 Mallorca Away

In the last 5 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Rayo Vallecano — unbeaten run (home)4
Rayo Vallecano — scoring streak (home)0
Mallorca — winless run (away)4
Mallorca — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Rayo Vallecano Win (1)40%
Draw (X)27%
Mallorca Win (2)32%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

84% +0.5 53%
32% +1.5 21%
11% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

16% -0.5 47%
68% -1.5 79%
89% -2.5 95%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Rayo Vallecano — scored (home)1.26
Rayo Vallecano — conceded (home)1.37
Mallorca — scored (away)0.79
Mallorca — conceded (away)1.21
Model expected combined goals2.44

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%
No50%

Rate per Team

Rayo Vallecano — BTTS matches (home)68%
Mallorca — BTTS matches (away)37%
Combined (simple average)52.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.582%
Under 6.518%
Over 7.568%
Under 7.532%
Over 8.555%
Under 8.545%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Rayo Vallecano (home)

Corners for5.7
Corners against3.9

Mallorca (away)

Corners for3.0
Corners against6.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Rayo Vallecano
10 16 17 11 13
Mallorca
7 15 26 7 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Rayo Vallecano (home)

For2.3

Mallorca (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Rayo Vallecano — total shots (home)15.7
Mallorca — total shots (away)9.1

Shots on Target

Rayo Vallecano — on target (home)5.6
Mallorca — on target (away)2.6

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Rayo Vallecano

Inside the box7.68
Outside the box5.87

Mallorca

Inside the box7.37
Outside the box2.82

Player Shots Rayo Vallecano

Ó. Trejo
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target5%
+1.5 On Target5%
Sergio Camello
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target26%
+1.5 On Target9%
Sergi Guardiola
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target6%
Pep Chavarría
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target3%
Álvaro García
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target14%

Player Shots Mallorca

V. Muriqi
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target14%
Valery
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target11%
+1.5 On Target6%
C. Larin
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target9%
Raíllo
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target6%
Dani Rodríguez
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target5%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Rayo Vallecano xG (home)1.2
Mallorca xG (away)1.02

Average Possession

51.68% Possession 46.61%

Team Comparison Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca

79.29% Pass accuracy 79.37%
420.82 Passes per match 381.89
0.06 Goals prevented -0.01
13.74 Fouls committed 12.26
2.95 Goalkeeper saves 3.38
2.26 Offsides 2.23
16.68 Tackles per match 15.42

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca prediction analysis

Review Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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