Prediction Analysis: RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen
RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Bundesliga
2025-12-20
17:30
RB Leipzig
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
74%
Confidence
High
Score
2-1
Bayer Leverkusen
Away
Prediction Summary
1
66%
X
17%
2
17%
Over 2.5
74%
BTTS Yes
66%
Confidence
High
Market Evidence
RB Leipzig (Home)
Goals scored / match2.35
Goals conceded / match1.18
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate65%
Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Goals scored / match1.76
Goals conceded / match1.65
Over 2.5 rate41%
BTTS rate65%
Team Form last 5 matches
RB Leipzig
LWLWW
Bayer Leverkusen
DLWWL
Goals Comparison rate per team
100%
+0.5
76%
76%
+1.5
53%
29%
+2.5
41%
12%
+3.5
6%
12%
+4.5
0%
65%
BTTS
65%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 74%. Model confidence is High.
RB Leipzig averages 2.35 goals scored at home, while Bayer Leverkusen averages 1.76 goals scored away.
Model Strength
74%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
66%
Draw
17%
Away Win
17%
Over 2.5
74%
BTTS Yes
66%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
RB Leipzig(A)
1 - 4
Bayer Leverkusen
Away
Dec 2025
RB Leipzig
1 - 3
Bayer Leverkusen
Away
Jan 2025
RB Leipzig
2 - 2
Bayer Leverkusen
Draw
Aug 2024
RB Leipzig(A)
3 - 2
Bayer Leverkusen
Home
Jan 2024
RB Leipzig
2 - 3
Bayer Leverkusen
Away
In the last 5 meetings, RB Leipzig won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
RB Leipzig — unbeaten run (home)7
RB Leipzig — scoring streak (home)17
Bayer Leverkusen — winless run (away)1
Bayer Leverkusen — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
RB Leipzig Win (1)66%
Draw (X)17%
Bayer Leverkusen Win (2)17%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
100%
+0.5
76%
76%
+1.5
53%
29%
+2.5
41%
12%
+3.5
6%
12%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
0%
-0.5
24%
24%
-1.5
47%
71%
-2.5
59%
88%
-3.5
94%
88%
-4.5
100%
RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
RB Leipzig — scored (home)2.35
RB Leipzig — conceded (home)1.18
Bayer Leverkusen — scored (away)1.76
Bayer Leverkusen — conceded (away)1.65
Model expected combined goals3.83
Both Teams To Score
Yes66%
No34%
Rate per Team
RB Leipzig — BTTS matches (home)65%
Bayer Leverkusen — BTTS matches (away)65%
Combined (simple average)65%
Corners Line match total, blended estimate
Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.588%
Under 5.512%
Over 6.588%
Under 6.512%
Over 7.577%
Under 7.523%
Over 8.562%
Under 8.538%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.532%
Under 10.568%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.90
Per-Team Corners own matches
RB Leipzig (home)
Corners for5.9
Corners against4.5
Bayer Leverkusen (away)
Corners for4.5
Corners against4.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
RB Leipzig
10
14
10
8
3
Bayer Leverkusen
15
7
10
13
11
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.597%
Under 1.53%
Over 2.577%
Under 2.523%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1
Yellow Cards per Team
RB Leipzig (home)
For1.4
Bayer Leverkusen (away)
For2.2
Shots per Game
RB Leipzig — total shots (home)17.3
Bayer Leverkusen — total shots (away)11.7
Shots on Target
RB Leipzig — on target (home)7.3
Bayer Leverkusen — on target (away)3.8
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
RB Leipzig
Inside the box11.29
Outside the box4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
Inside the box9.79
Outside the box5.38
Player Shots RB Leipzig
C. Baumgartner
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target27%
Rômulo
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target20%
Y. Diomande
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target21%
B. Gruda
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target23%
A. Ouédraogo
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target26%
Player Shots Bayer Leverkusen
P. Schick
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target61%
+1.5 On Target46%
Álex Grimaldo
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target17%
Christian Kofane
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target41%
+1.5 On Target21%
I. Maza
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target21%
N. Tella
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target12%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
RB Leipzig xG (home)1.98
Bayer Leverkusen xG (away)1.93
Average Possession
53.88%
Possession
59.18%
Team Comparison RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen
84.15%
Pass accuracy
87.68%
503
Passes per match
605.44
0.05
Goals prevented
0.16
9.26
Fouls committed
8.59
2.47
Goalkeeper saves
3.53
1.5
Offsides
1.34
15.12
Tackles per match
14.06
League average xG this season is 1.57 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction analysis
Review RB Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Bundesliga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Bundesliga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights