Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: RB Leipzig vs Liverpool

RB Leipzig vs Liverpool prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Champions League 2024-10-23 19:00
RB Leipzig
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
57%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Liverpool
Away

Prediction Summary

1
24%
X
23%
2
53%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

RB Leipzig (Home)

Goals scored / match1.5
Goals conceded / match2
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate75%

Liverpool (Away)

Goals scored / match1.6
Goals conceded / match0.8
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate40%

Team Form last 5 matches

RB Leipzig
LWLLL
Liverpool
LWLWW

Goals Comparison rate per team

75% +0.5 100%
75% +1.5 40%
0% +2.5 20%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
75% BTTS 40%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 57%. Model confidence is Medium.

RB Leipzig averages 1.5 goals scored at home, while Liverpool averages 1.6 goals scored away.

Model Strength
57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
24%
Draw
23%
Away Win
53%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
57%

Head-to-Head last 3

Oct 2024 RB Leipzig 0 - 1 Liverpool Away
Mar 2021 RB Leipzig(A) 0 - 2 Liverpool Away
Feb 2021 RB Leipzig 0 - 2 Liverpool Away

In the last 3 meetings, RB Leipzig won 0, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

RB Leipzig — unbeaten run (home)1
RB Leipzig — scoring streak (home)2
Liverpool — winless run (away)0
Liverpool — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5

1X2 Probability model

RB Leipzig Win (1)24%
Draw (X)23%
Liverpool Win (2)53%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

75% +0.5 100%
75% +1.5 40%
0% +2.5 20%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

25% -0.5 0%
25% -1.5 60%
100% -2.5 80%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

RB Leipzig vs Liverpool — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

RB Leipzig — scored (home)1.5
RB Leipzig — conceded (home)2
Liverpool — scored (away)1.6
Liverpool — conceded (away)0.8
Model expected combined goals2.95

Both Teams To Score

Yes57%
No43%

Rate per Team

RB Leipzig — BTTS matches (home)75%
Liverpool — BTTS matches (away)40%
Combined (simple average)57.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.5100%
Under 6.50%
Over 7.590%
Under 7.510%
Over 8.590%
Under 8.510%
Over 9.578%
Under 9.522%
Over 10.555%
Under 10.545%
Expected total corners (blended average)11.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

RB Leipzig (home)

Corners for4.5
Corners against6.3

Liverpool (away)

Corners for4.8
Corners against6.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

RB Leipzig
15 11 12 9 12
Liverpool
13 6 10 16 18

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.590%
Under 2.510%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4

Yellow Cards per Team

RB Leipzig (home)

For1.8

Liverpool (away)

For1.8

Shots per Game

RB Leipzig — total shots (home)16.0
Liverpool — total shots (away)13.2

Shots on Target

RB Leipzig — on target (home)6.0
Liverpool — on target (away)6.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

RB Leipzig

Inside the box8
Outside the box4.88

Liverpool

Inside the box10.4
Outside the box4.2

Player Shots RB Leipzig

C. Baumgartner
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target38%
A. Haidara
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
Y. Poulsen
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target17%
B. Šeško
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target38%
W. Orbán
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target13%

Player Shots Liverpool

D. Szoboszlai
Shots on Target/Game3
+0.5 On Target11%
+1.5 On Target11%
F. Chiesa
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target67%
T. Alexander-Arnold
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
L. Díaz
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target22%
D. Núñez
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target33%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

RB Leipzig xG (home)1.53
Liverpool xG (away)2.1

Average Possession

47.38% Possession 50.9%

Team Comparison RB Leipzig vs Liverpool

83.5% Pass accuracy 85.4%
450.5 Passes per match 508
0.09 Goals prevented 0.32
11 Fouls committed 10.6
3.13 Goalkeeper saves 3.8
2.38 Offsides 1.4
17.63 Tackles per match 14.8

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

RB Leipzig vs Liverpool prediction analysis

Review RB Leipzig vs Liverpool with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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