What markets are included in the Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo

Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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La Liga 2025-05-04 12:00

Real Madrid

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

66%

Confidence

Medium

Score

2-1

Celta Vigo

Away

Prediction Summary

60%

20%

Over 2.5

66%

BTTS Yes

62%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Real Madrid (Home)

Goals scored / match2.37

Goals conceded / match1

Over 2.5 rate42%

BTTS rate53%

Celta Vigo (Away)

Goals scored / match1.42

Goals conceded / match1.89

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate74%

Team Form last 5 matches

Real Madrid

WWWLW

Celta Vigo

WLWWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

95% +0.5 89%

79% +1.5 42%

42% +2.5 11%

21% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

53% BTTS 74%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 66%. Model confidence is Medium.

Real Madrid averages 2.37 goals scored at home, while Celta Vigo averages 1.42 goals scored away.

Model Strength

66%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

60%

Draw

20%

Away Win

20%

Over 2.5

66%

BTTS Yes

62%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Real Madrid(A) 2 - 1 Celta Vigo Home

Dec 2025 Real Madrid 0 - 2 Celta Vigo Away

May 2025 Real Madrid 3 - 2 Celta Vigo Home

Jan 2025 Real Madrid 5 - 2 Celta Vigo Home

Oct 2024 Real Madrid(A) 2 - 1 Celta Vigo Home

In the last 5 meetings, Real Madrid won 4, drew 0 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Real Madrid — unbeaten run (home)4

Real Madrid — scoring streak (home)13

Celta Vigo — winless run (away)0

Celta Vigo — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Real Madrid Win (1)60%

Draw (X)20%

Celta Vigo Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

95% +0.5 89%

79% +1.5 42%

42% +2.5 11%

21% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

5% -0.5 11%

21% -1.5 58%

58% -2.5 89%

79% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Real Madrid — scored (home)2.37

Real Madrid — conceded (home)1

Celta Vigo — scored (away)1.42

Celta Vigo — conceded (away)1.89

Model expected combined goals3.38

Both Teams To Score

Yes62%

No38%

Rate per Team

Real Madrid — BTTS matches (home)53%

Celta Vigo — BTTS matches (away)74%

Combined (simple average)63.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%

Under 4.52%

Over 5.595%

Under 5.55%

Over 6.584%

Under 6.516%

Over 7.566%

Under 7.534%

Over 8.558%

Under 8.542%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.535%

Under 10.565%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Real Madrid (home)

Corners for8.4

Corners against3.6

Celta Vigo (away)

Corners for3.4

Corners against4.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Real Madrid

10 12 26 8 15

Celta Vigo

10 9 15 11 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%

Under 0.55%

Over 1.590%

Under 1.510%

Over 2.576%

Under 2.524%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Real Madrid (home)

For1.3

Celta Vigo (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Real Madrid — total shots (home)19.3

Celta Vigo — total shots (away)11.4

Shots on Target

Real Madrid — on target (home)7.6

Celta Vigo — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Real Madrid

Inside the box10.61

Outside the box6.08

Celta Vigo

Inside the box7.76

Outside the box4.11

Player Shots Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé

Shots on Target/Game2.8

+0.5 On Target88%

+1.5 On Target79%

A. Güler

Shots on Target/Game1.7

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target14%

Vinícius Júnior

Shots on Target/Game1.6

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target20%

Brahim Díaz

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target10%

J. Bellingham

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target55%

+1.5 On Target19%

Player Shots Celta Vigo

T. Douvikas

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target25%

+1.5 On Target10%

Borja Iglesias

Shots on Target/Game1.8

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target22%

J. Bamba

Shots on Target/Game1.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target17%

Iago Aspas

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target57%

+1.5 On Target23%

Alfon González

Shots on Target/Game1.4

+0.5 On Target58%

+1.5 On Target19%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Real Madrid xG (home)1.98

Celta Vigo xG (away)1.44

Average Possession

60.42% Possession 53.71%

Team Comparison Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo

89.42% Pass accuracy 84.66%

598.26 Passes per match 517.95

0.04 Goals prevented -0.14

8.74 Fouls committed 12.16

2.37 Goalkeeper saves 2.42

2.36 Offsides 1.86

15.42 Tackles per match 14.68

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo prediction analysis

Review Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights