Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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La Liga 2026-08-26 19:00
Real Madrid
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Real Madrid
Probability
60%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Real Sociedad
Away

Prediction Summary

1
60%
X
21%
2
19%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Real Madrid (Home)

Goals scored / match2.37
Goals conceded / match0.84
Over 2.5 rate37%
BTTS rate58%

Real Sociedad (Away)

Goals scored / match1.16
Goals conceded / match1.58
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate79%

Team Form last 5 matches

Real Madrid
WWWLW
Real Sociedad
DLDDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

89% +0.5 84%
79% +1.5 21%
37% +2.5 11%
26% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%
58% BTTS 79%

Model Insight

The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 60%. Model confidence is Medium.

Real Madrid averages 2.37 goals scored at home, while Real Sociedad averages 1.16 goals scored away.

Model Strength
60%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
60%
Draw
21%
Away Win
19%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Yes
54%

Head-to-Head last 5

Feb 2026 Real Madrid 4 - 1 Real Sociedad Home
Sep 2025 Real Madrid(A) 2 - 1 Real Sociedad Home
May 2025 Real Madrid 2 - 0 Real Sociedad Home
Apr 2025 Real Madrid 4 - 4 Real Sociedad Draw
Feb 2025 Real Madrid(A) 1 - 0 Real Sociedad Home

In the last 5 meetings, Real Madrid won 4, drew 1 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Real Madrid — unbeaten run (home)6
Real Madrid — scoring streak (home)6
Real Sociedad — winless run (away)6
Real Sociedad — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Real Madrid Win (1)60%
Draw (X)21%
Real Sociedad Win (2)19%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

89% +0.5 84%
79% +1.5 21%
37% +2.5 11%
26% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

11% -0.5 16%
21% -1.5 79%
63% -2.5 89%
74% -3.5 100%
95% -4.5 100%

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Real Madrid — scored (home)2.37
Real Madrid — conceded (home)0.84
Real Sociedad — scored (away)1.16
Real Sociedad — conceded (away)1.58
Model expected combined goals2.97

Both Teams To Score

Yes54%
No46%

Rate per Team

Real Madrid — BTTS matches (home)58%
Real Sociedad — BTTS matches (away)79%
Combined (simple average)68.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.547%
Under 9.553%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.60

Per-Team Corners own matches

Real Madrid (home)

Corners for6.5
Corners against3.0

Real Sociedad (away)

Corners for5.2
Corners against4.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Real Madrid
11 12 9 8 3
Real Sociedad
6 7 9 5 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.5

Yellow Cards per Team

Real Madrid (home)

For2.1

Real Sociedad (away)

For2.5

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.575%
Under 19.525%
Over 22.562%
Under 22.538%
Over 25.549%
Under 25.551%
Expected total shots26.30

Real Madrid

Shots Over 9.586%
Shots Over 11.575%
Shots Over 13.562%
Expected shots15.93
On Target Over 3.578%
On Target Over 4.564%
On Target Over 5.550%
Expected on target5.77

Real Sociedad

Shots Over 9.554%
Shots Over 11.536%
Shots Over 13.522%
Expected shots10.36
On Target Over 3.543%
On Target Over 4.527%
On Target Over 5.515%
Expected on target3.40

Shots per Game

Real Madrid — total shots (home)19.0
Real Sociedad — total shots (away)11.7

Shots on Target

Real Madrid — on target (home)7.7
Real Sociedad — on target (away)4.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Real Madrid

Inside the box11.13
Outside the box6.34

Real Sociedad

Inside the box7.61
Outside the box4.74

Player Shots Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target84%
+1.5 On Target68%
Vinícius Júnior
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target72%
+1.5 On Target36%
J. Bellingham
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target54%
+1.5 On Target32%
F. Valverde
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target15%
Rodrygo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target11%

Player Shots Real Sociedad

Mikel Oyarzabal
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target71%
+1.5 On Target29%
O. Óskarsson
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target30%
Carlos Soler
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target9%
Gonçalo Guedes
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target19%
Brais Méndez
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target48%
+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Real Madrid xG (home)2.05
Real Sociedad xG (away)1.41

Average Possession

59.39% Possession 51.26%

Team Comparison Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

89.18% Pass accuracy 82.18%
587.05 Passes per match 448.13
0.02 Goals prevented -0.08
10 Fouls committed 14.24
2.26 Goalkeeper saves 2.79
2.23 Offsides 2.43
15.55 Tackles per match 17.87

League average xG this season is 1.35 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad prediction analysis

Review Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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