Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Real Madrid vs VfB Stuttgart

Real Madrid vs VfB Stuttgart prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Champions League 2024-09-17 19:00
Real Madrid
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
77%
Confidence
High
Score
2-1
VfB Stuttgart
Away

Prediction Summary

1
60%
X
18%
2
22%
Over 2.5
77%
BTTS Yes
72%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Real Madrid (Home)

Goals scored / match2.86
Goals conceded / match1.57
Over 2.5 rate57%
BTTS rate100%

VfB Stuttgart (Away)

Goals scored / match1.5
Goals conceded / match2.25
Over 2.5 rate25%
BTTS rate75%

Team Form last 5 matches

Real Madrid
LLLWW
VfB Stuttgart
LWWLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 100%
71% +1.5 25%
57% +2.5 25%
29% +3.5 0%
29% +4.5 0%
100% BTTS 75%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 77%. Model confidence is High.

Real Madrid averages 2.86 goals scored at home, while VfB Stuttgart averages 1.5 goals scored away.

Model Strength
77%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
60%
Draw
18%
Away Win
22%
Over 2.5
77%
BTTS Yes
72%

Head-to-Head last 1

Sep 2024 Real Madrid 3 - 1 VfB Stuttgart Home

In the last 1 meetings, Real Madrid won 1, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Real Madrid — unbeaten run (home)0
Real Madrid — scoring streak (home)7
VfB Stuttgart — winless run (away)0
VfB Stuttgart — clean sheets (away, last 4)1 of 4

1X2 Probability model

Real Madrid Win (1)60%
Draw (X)18%
VfB Stuttgart Win (2)22%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 100%
71% +1.5 25%
57% +2.5 25%
29% +3.5 0%
29% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 0%
29% -1.5 75%
43% -2.5 75%
71% -3.5 100%
71% -4.5 100%

Real Madrid vs VfB Stuttgart — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Real Madrid — scored (home)2.86
Real Madrid — conceded (home)1.57
VfB Stuttgart — scored (away)1.5
VfB Stuttgart — conceded (away)2.25
Model expected combined goals4.09

Both Teams To Score

Yes72%
No28%

Rate per Team

Real Madrid — BTTS matches (home)100%
VfB Stuttgart — BTTS matches (away)75%
Combined (simple average)87.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.5100%
Under 6.50%
Over 7.5100%
Under 7.50%
Over 8.588%
Under 8.512%
Over 9.581%
Under 9.519%
Over 10.581%
Under 10.519%
Expected total corners (blended average)14.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Real Madrid (home)

Corners for8.9
Corners against4.3

VfB Stuttgart (away)

Corners for9.8
Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Real Madrid
12 9 20 8 14
VfB Stuttgart
7 8 5 23 10

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.1

Yellow Cards per Team

Real Madrid (home)

For2.1

VfB Stuttgart (away)

For1.8

Shots per Game

Real Madrid — total shots (home)18.4
VfB Stuttgart — total shots (away)18.3

Shots on Target

Real Madrid — on target (home)7.4
VfB Stuttgart — on target (away)6.5

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Real Madrid

Inside the box9.93
Outside the box5.21

VfB Stuttgart

Inside the box11.13
Outside the box6.25

Player Shots Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé
Shots on Target/Game2.5
+0.5 On Target79%
+1.5 On Target57%
Vinícius Júnior
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target42%
Rodrygo
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target25%
Lucas Vázquez
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target10%
J. Bellingham
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots VfB Stuttgart

J. Leweling
Shots on Target/Game2.3
+0.5 On Target80%
+1.5 On Target60%
E. Millot
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target25%
D. Undav
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target17%
A. Stiller
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target13%
C. Führich
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target14%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Real Madrid xG (home)2.02
VfB Stuttgart xG (away)1.78

Average Possession

53.07% Possession 59.13%

Team Comparison Real Madrid vs VfB Stuttgart

89.14% Pass accuracy 85.13%
541.79 Passes per match 549.63
0.01 Goals prevented -0.54
11.57 Fouls committed 11.38
4.29 Goalkeeper saves 1.88
1.27 Offsides 2.13
17.57 Tackles per match 18

League average xG this season is 1.54 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Real Madrid vs VfB Stuttgart prediction analysis

Review Real Madrid vs VfB Stuttgart with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Champions League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Champions League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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