Prediction Analysis: Real Sociedad II vs Castellón
Real Sociedad II vs Castellón prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Segunda División
2026-08-16
15:00
Real Sociedad II
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Castellón
Away
Prediction Summary
1
38%
X
26%
2
36%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Real Sociedad II (Home)
Goals scored / match1.38
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate14%
BTTS rate57%
Castellón (Away)
Goals scored / match1.36
Goals conceded / match1.32
Over 2.5 rate23%
BTTS rate59%
Team Form last 5 matches
Real Sociedad II
DLDWD
Castellón
LDWWD
Goals Comparison rate per team
76%
+0.5
73%
43%
+1.5
36%
14%
+2.5
23%
5%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
57%
BTTS
59%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.
Real Sociedad II averages 1.38 goals scored at home, while Castellón averages 1.36 goals scored away.
Model Strength
54%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
38%
Draw
26%
Away Win
36%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
Head-to-Head last 2
Mar 2026
Real Sociedad II
4 - 2
Castellón
Home
Nov 2025
Real Sociedad II(A)
4 - 5
Castellón
Away
In the last 2 meetings, Real Sociedad II won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Real Sociedad II — unbeaten run (home)3
Real Sociedad II — scoring streak (home)2
Castellón — winless run (away)1
Castellón — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Real Sociedad II Win (1)38%
Draw (X)26%
Castellón Win (2)36%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
76%
+0.5
73%
43%
+1.5
36%
14%
+2.5
23%
5%
+3.5
5%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
24%
-0.5
27%
57%
-1.5
64%
86%
-2.5
77%
95%
-3.5
95%
100%
-4.5
100%
Real Sociedad II vs Castellón — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Real Sociedad II — scored (home)1.38
Real Sociedad II — conceded (home)1.29
Castellón — scored (away)1.36
Castellón — conceded (away)1.32
Model expected combined goals2.67
Both Teams To Score
Yes54%
No46%
Rate per Team
Real Sociedad II — BTTS matches (home)57%
Castellón — BTTS matches (away)59%
Combined (simple average)58%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.556%
Under 8.544%
Over 9.545%
Under 9.555%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.40
Per-Team Corners own matches
Real Sociedad II (home)
Corners for3.8
Corners against4.9
Castellón (away)
Corners for6.4
Corners against3.8
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Real Sociedad II
4
16
7
12
10
Castellón
7
11
14
8
12
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.593%
Under 1.57%
Over 2.591%
Under 2.59%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.8
Yellow Cards per Team
Real Sociedad II (home)
For3.4
Castellón (away)
For2.6
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.573%
Under 19.527%
Over 22.557%
Under 22.543%
Over 25.542%
Under 25.558%
Expected total shots24.56
Real Sociedad II
Shots Over 9.571%
Shots Over 11.554%
Shots Over 13.537%
Expected shots12.33
On Target Over 3.560%
On Target Over 4.543%
On Target Over 5.528%
Expected on target4.33
Castellón
Shots Over 9.570%
Shots Over 11.553%
Shots Over 13.536%
Expected shots12.22
On Target Over 3.559%
On Target Over 4.541%
On Target Over 5.526%
Expected on target4.23
Shots per Game
Real Sociedad II — total shots (home)12.5
Castellón — total shots (away)14.0
Shots on Target
Real Sociedad II — on target (home)4.2
Castellón — on target (away)5.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Real Sociedad II
Inside the box7.26
Outside the box5.48
Castellón
Inside the box10.41
Outside the box4.68
Player Shots Real Sociedad II
Sydney Osazuwa
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target17%
Gorka Carrera
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target32%
J. Ochieng
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target24%
Mikel Rodriguez
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target15%
Ibai Aguirre
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target5%
Player Shots Castellón
Álex Calatrava
Shots on Target/Game1.9
+0.5 On Target65%
+1.5 On Target37%
K. Mamah
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target15%
+1.5 On Target8%
Barri
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target6%
Varo García
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target6%
A. Jakobsen
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target14%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Sociedad II xG (home)1.41
Castellón xG (away)1.92
Average Possession
44.19%
Possession
55.05%
Team Comparison Real Sociedad II vs Castellón
75.62%
Pass accuracy
81.06%
354.4
Passes per match
424.3
0
Goals prevented
0
16.6
Fouls committed
14.39
2.9
Goalkeeper saves
2.58
1.95
Offsides
2.28
16.69
Tackles per match
18.05
League average xG this season is 1.42 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Real Sociedad II vs Castellón prediction analysis
Review Real Sociedad II vs Castellón with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Segunda División.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Segunda División
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights