Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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La Liga 2025-05-13 18:00
Real Sociedad
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
52%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Celta Vigo
Away

Prediction Summary

1
45%
X
25%
2
30%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Real Sociedad (Home)

Goals scored / match1.05
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate16%
BTTS rate32%

Celta Vigo (Away)

Goals scored / match1.42
Goals conceded / match1.89
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate74%

Team Form last 5 matches

Real Sociedad
LWLLD
Celta Vigo
WLWWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

58% +0.5 89%
32% +1.5 42%
16% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
32% BTTS 74%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Low.

Real Sociedad averages 1.05 goals scored at home, while Celta Vigo averages 1.42 goals scored away.

Model Strength
55%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
45%
Draw
25%
Away Win
30%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
55%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jan 2026 Real Sociedad 3 - 1 Celta Vigo Home
Oct 2025 Real Sociedad(A) 1 - 1 Celta Vigo Draw
May 2025 Real Sociedad 0 - 1 Celta Vigo Away
Dec 2024 Real Sociedad(A) 0 - 2 Celta Vigo Away
Jan 2024 Real Sociedad(A) 2 - 1 Celta Vigo Home

In the last 5 meetings, Real Sociedad won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Real Sociedad — unbeaten run (home)1
Real Sociedad — scoring streak (home)1
Celta Vigo — winless run (away)0
Celta Vigo — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Real Sociedad Win (1)45%
Draw (X)25%
Celta Vigo Win (2)30%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

58% +0.5 89%
32% +1.5 42%
16% +2.5 11%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

42% -0.5 11%
68% -1.5 58%
84% -2.5 89%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Real Sociedad — scored (home)1.05
Real Sociedad — conceded (home)1.05
Celta Vigo — scored (away)1.42
Celta Vigo — conceded (away)1.89
Model expected combined goals2.74

Both Teams To Score

Yes55%
No45%

Rate per Team

Real Sociedad — BTTS matches (home)32%
Celta Vigo — BTTS matches (away)74%
Combined (simple average)53%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.595%
Under 4.55%
Over 5.592%
Under 5.58%
Over 6.574%
Under 6.526%
Over 7.558%
Under 7.542%
Over 8.556%
Under 8.544%
Over 9.542%
Under 9.558%
Over 10.529%
Under 10.571%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.20

Per-Team Corners own matches

Real Sociedad (home)

Corners for6.7
Corners against3.7

Celta Vigo (away)

Corners for3.4
Corners against4.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Real Sociedad
10 6 15 11 15
Celta Vigo
10 9 15 11 8

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.595%
Under 0.55%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.589%
Under 2.511%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Real Sociedad (home)

For2.4

Celta Vigo (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Real Sociedad — total shots (home)12.1
Celta Vigo — total shots (away)11.4

Shots on Target

Real Sociedad — on target (home)4.2
Celta Vigo — on target (away)4.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Real Sociedad

Inside the box6.76
Outside the box3.47

Celta Vigo

Inside the box7.76
Outside the box4.11

Player Shots Real Sociedad

A. Zakharyan
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
O. Óskarsson
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target4%
Mikel Oyarzabal
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target9%
Barrenetxea
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target20%
+1.5 On Target7%
S. Becker
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Celta Vigo

T. Douvikas
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target10%
Borja Iglesias
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target22%
J. Bamba
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
Iago Aspas
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target23%
Alfon González
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target58%
+1.5 On Target19%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Real Sociedad xG (home)1.12
Celta Vigo xG (away)1.44

Average Possession

54.08% Possession 53.71%

Team Comparison Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

81.21% Pass accuracy 84.66%
446.97 Passes per match 517.95
-0.05 Goals prevented -0.14
13.18 Fouls committed 12.16
2.55 Goalkeeper saves 2.42
2.16 Offsides 1.86
17.05 Tackles per match 14.68

League average xG this season is 1.29 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo prediction analysis

Review Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from La Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance La Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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