Prediction Analysis: Rennes vs Marseille
Rennes vs Marseille prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Ligue 1
2026-09-12
15:00
Rennes
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
52%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Marseille
Away
Prediction Summary
1
48%
X
25%
2
27%
+2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS
55%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Rennes (Home)
Goals scored / match1.76
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate29%
BTTS rate71%
Marseille (Away)
Goals scored / match1.29
Goals conceded / match1.47
Over 2.5 rate18%
BTTS rate35%
Team Form last 5 matches
Rennes
LWLWW
Marseille
WWLDL
Goals Comparison rate per team
82%
+0.5
59%
53%
+1.5
29%
29%
+2.5
18%
12%
+3.5
12%
0%
+4.5
12%
71%
BTTS
35%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Low.
Rennes averages 1.76 goals scored at home, while Marseille averages 1.29 goals scored away.
Model Strength
55%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
48%
Draw
25%
Away Win
27%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Rennes(A)
1 - 3
Marseille
Away
Aug 2025
Rennes
1 - 0
Marseille
Home
May 2025
Rennes(A)
2 - 4
Marseille
Away
Jan 2025
Rennes
1 - 2
Marseille
Away
Mar 2024
Rennes
2 - 0
Marseille
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Rennes won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Rennes — unbeaten run (home)4
Rennes — scoring streak (home)3
Marseille — winless run (away)0
Marseille — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Rennes Win (1)48%
Draw (X)25%
Marseille Win (2)27%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
82%
+0.5
59%
53%
+1.5
29%
29%
+2.5
18%
12%
+3.5
12%
0%
+4.5
12%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
18%
-0.5
41%
47%
-1.5
71%
71%
-2.5
82%
88%
-3.5
88%
100%
-4.5
88%
Rennes vs Marseille — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Rennes — scored (home)1.76
Rennes — conceded (home)1
Marseille — scored (away)1.29
Marseille — conceded (away)1.47
Model expected combined goals2.77
Both Teams To Score
Yes55%
No45%
Rate per Team
Rennes — BTTS matches (home)71%
Marseille — BTTS matches (away)35%
Combined (simple average)53%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.50
Per-Team Corners own matches
Rennes (home)
Corners for6.5
Corners against4.6
Marseille (away)
Corners for4.8
Corners against4.1
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Rennes
11
14
12
10
15
Marseille
8
8
15
3
15
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.594%
Under 0.56%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4
Yellow Cards per Team
Rennes (home)
For1.6
Marseille (away)
For2.7
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.572%
Under 19.528%
Over 22.559%
Under 22.541%
Over 25.545%
Under 25.555%
Expected total shots25.26
Rennes
Shots Over 9.574%
Shots Over 11.559%
Shots Over 13.544%
Expected shots13.22
On Target Over 3.565%
On Target Over 4.548%
On Target Over 5.534%
Expected on target4.70
Marseille
Shots Over 9.567%
Shots Over 11.550%
Shots Over 13.535%
Expected shots12.04
On Target Over 3.557%
On Target Over 4.540%
On Target Over 5.527%
Expected on target4.21
Shots per Game
Rennes — total shots (home)15.9
Marseille — total shots (away)14.4
Shots on Target
Rennes — on target (home)5.5
Marseille — on target (away)5.1
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Rennes
Inside the box8.82
Outside the box5.35
Marseille
Inside the box9.62
Outside the box5.47
Player Shots Rennes
E. Lepaul
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target75%
+1.5 On Target34%
Mousa Tamari
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target18%
B. Embolo
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target10%
A. Nordin
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target0%
L. Blas
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target6%
Player Shots Marseille
M. Greenwood
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target41%
P. Aubameyang
Shots on Target/Game1.1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target30%
A. Gouiri
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target14%
Igor Paixão
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target13%
H. Traorè
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Rennes xG (home)1.59
Marseille xG (away)1.81
Average Possession
53.5%
Possession
56.94%
Team Comparison Rennes vs Marseille
84.18%
Pass accuracy
87.15%
477
Passes per match
540.71
-0.01
Goals prevented
-0.27
12.38
Fouls committed
12.71
2.88
Goalkeeper saves
2.62
2.41
Offsides
1.24
16.15
Tackles per match
14.91
League average xG this season is 1.44 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Rennes vs Marseille prediction analysis
Review Rennes vs Marseille with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Ligue 1.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Ligue 1
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights