Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Riga vs Vardar Skopje

Riga vs Vardar Skopje prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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UEFA Europa Conference League 2026-07-28 17:00
Riga
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Riga
Probability
81%
Confidence
High
Score
2-0
Vardar Skopje
Away

Prediction Summary

1
81%
X
13%
2
7%
Over 2.5
66%
BTTS No
54%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Riga (Home)

Goals scored / match2
Goals conceded / match0.33
Over 2.5 rate33%
BTTS rate33%

Vardar Skopje (Away)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match3.5
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate50%

Team Form last 5 matches

Riga
WWLLW
Vardar Skopje
LLWDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

100% +0.5 50%
67% +1.5 50%
33% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
33% BTTS 50%

Model Insight

The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 81%. Model confidence is High.

Riga averages 2 goals scored at home, while Vardar Skopje averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength
81%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
81%
Draw
13%
Away Win
7%
Over 2.5
66%
BTTS Yes
46%

Head-to-Head last 1

Jul 2026 Riga(A) 3 - 2 Vardar Skopje Home

In the last 1 meetings, Riga won 1, drew 0 and lost 0.

Current Streaks

Riga — unbeaten run (home)3
Riga — scoring streak (home)3
Vardar Skopje — winless run (away)2
Vardar Skopje — clean sheets (away, last 2)0 of 2

1X2 Probability model

Riga Win (1)81%
Draw (X)13%
Vardar Skopje Win (2)7%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

100% +0.5 50%
67% +1.5 50%
33% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

0% -0.5 50%
33% -1.5 50%
67% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Riga vs Vardar Skopje — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Riga — scored (home)2
Riga — conceded (home)0.33
Vardar Skopje — scored (away)1
Vardar Skopje — conceded (away)3.5
Model expected combined goals3.42

Both Teams To Score

Yes46%
No54%

Rate per Team

Riga — BTTS matches (home)33%
Vardar Skopje — BTTS matches (away)50%
Combined (simple average)41.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.554%
Under 8.546%
Over 9.544%
Under 9.556%
Over 10.535%
Under 10.565%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Riga (home)

Corners for—
Corners against—

Vardar Skopje (away)

Corners for3.0
Corners against4.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Vardar Skopje
9 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.550%
Under 0.550%
Over 1.550%
Under 1.550%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3

Yellow Cards per Team

Riga (home)

For—

Vardar Skopje (away)

For1.0

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.570%
Under 19.530%
Over 22.558%
Under 22.542%
Over 25.546%
Under 25.554%
Expected total shots25.67

Riga

Shots Over 9.578%
Shots Over 11.565%
Shots Over 13.552%
Expected shots14.52
On Target Over 3.568%
On Target Over 4.554%
On Target Over 5.540%
Expected on target5.15

Vardar Skopje

Shots Over 9.558%
Shots Over 11.542%
Shots Over 13.529%
Expected shots11.15
On Target Over 3.552%
On Target Over 4.536%
On Target Over 5.523%
Expected on target3.92

Shots per Game

Riga — total shots (home)—
Vardar Skopje — total shots (away)8.0

Shots on Target

Riga — on target (home)—
Vardar Skopje — on target (away)3.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Riga

Inside the box-
Outside the box-

Vardar Skopje

Inside the box8
Outside the box1.5
Player shot data not available yetNot enough player match statistics for these squads.

Expected Goals (xG)

Riga xG (home)-
Vardar Skopje xG (away)0

Average Possession

-% Possession 42.5%

Team Comparison Riga vs Vardar Skopje

0% Pass accuracy 67%
- Passes per match 290
- Goals prevented 0
- Fouls committed 10.5
- Goalkeeper saves 2.5
- Offsides 3.5
- Tackles per match 23.5

League average xG this season is 1.34 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Riga vs Vardar Skopje prediction analysis

Review Riga vs Vardar Skopje with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from UEFA Europa Conference League.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance UEFA Europa Conference League
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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