Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Rio Ave vs Boavista

Rio Ave vs Boavista prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-04-07 19:15
Rio Ave
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
54%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Boavista
Away

Prediction Summary

1
50%
X
24%
2
26%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
Confidence
Medium

Market Evidence

Rio Ave (Home)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.41
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate71%

Boavista (Away)

Goals scored / match0.94
Goals conceded / match1.65
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate41%

Team Form last 5 matches

Rio Ave
DDWLD
Boavista
LLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

88% +0.5 59%
53% +1.5 35%
6% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
71% BTTS 41%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 54%. Model confidence is Medium.

Rio Ave averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Boavista averages 0.94 goals scored away.

Model Strength
56%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
50%
Draw
24%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS Yes
56%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2025 Rio Ave 0 - 2 Boavista Away
Nov 2024 Rio Ave(A) 2 - 0 Boavista Home
Mar 2024 Rio Ave(A) 0 - 0 Boavista Draw
Nov 2023 Rio Ave 2 - 0 Boavista Home
Apr 2023 Rio Ave(A) 2 - 3 Boavista Away

In the last 5 meetings, Rio Ave won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Rio Ave — unbeaten run (home)3
Rio Ave — scoring streak (home)3
Boavista — winless run (away)1
Boavista — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Rio Ave Win (1)50%
Draw (X)24%
Boavista Win (2)26%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

88% +0.5 59%
53% +1.5 35%
6% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

12% -0.5 41%
47% -1.5 65%
94% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Rio Ave vs Boavista — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Rio Ave — scored (home)1.47
Rio Ave — conceded (home)1.41
Boavista — scored (away)0.94
Boavista — conceded (away)1.65
Model expected combined goals2.85

Both Teams To Score

Yes56%
No44%

Rate per Team

Rio Ave — BTTS matches (home)71%
Boavista — BTTS matches (away)41%
Combined (simple average)56%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.579%
Under 6.521%
Over 7.577%
Under 7.523%
Over 8.562%
Under 8.538%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.547%
Under 10.553%
Expected total corners (blended average)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Rio Ave (home)

Corners for5.0
Corners against5.6

Boavista (away)

Corners for3.2
Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Rio Ave
10 10 8 9 13
Boavista
8 8 9 4 13

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)4.8

Yellow Cards per Team

Rio Ave (home)

For2.2

Boavista (away)

For2.7

Shots per Game

Rio Ave — total shots (home)12.1
Boavista — total shots (away)9.2

Shots on Target

Rio Ave — on target (home)4.2
Boavista — on target (away)3.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Rio Ave

Inside the box6.79
Outside the box4.26

Boavista

Inside the box6.09
Outside the box4.32

Player Shots Rio Ave

F. Petrasso
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target14%
Clayton
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target74%
+1.5 On Target35%
Koka
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target11%
E. Tıknaz
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target7%
João Novais
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target3%

Player Shots Boavista

Manuel Namora
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target13%
+1.5 On Target13%
R. Boženík
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target24%
Joel da Silva
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target7%
A. Diaby
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target8%
Miguel Reisinho
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target34%
+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Rio Ave xG (home)1.07
Boavista xG (away)0.96

Average Possession

47.71% Possession 39.79%

Team Comparison Rio Ave vs Boavista

79.59% Pass accuracy 73.29%
389.88 Passes per match 315.88
-0.09 Goals prevented 0.24
13.5 Fouls committed 12.74
3.53 Goalkeeper saves 3.5
2.79 Offsides 2.53
17.68 Tackles per match 16.82

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Rio Ave vs Boavista prediction analysis

Review Rio Ave vs Boavista with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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