What markets are included in the Rio Ave vs Casa Pia prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Rio Ave vs Casa Pia prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Rio Ave vs Casa Pia

Rio Ave vs Casa Pia prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2026-01-04 15:30

Rio Ave

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

53%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Casa Pia

Away

Prediction Summary

36%

25%

38%

Over 2.5

53%

BTTS Yes

57%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Rio Ave (Home)

Goals scored / match1

Goals conceded / match1.71

Over 2.5 rate12%

BTTS rate53%

Casa Pia (Away)

Goals scored / match0.72

Goals conceded / match1.72

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate33%

Team Form last 5 matches

Rio Ave

DLDLD

Casa Pia

WDDWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

59% +0.5 50%

29% +1.5 22%

12% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

53% BTTS 33%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Medium.

Rio Ave averages 1 goals scored at home, while Casa Pia averages 0.72 goals scored away.

Model Strength

57%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

36%

Draw

25%

Away Win

38%

Over 2.5

53%

BTTS Yes

57%

Head-to-Head last 5

May 2026 Rio Ave(A) 1 - 1 Casa Pia Draw

Jan 2026 Rio Ave 3 - 1 Casa Pia Home

Mar 2025 Rio Ave(A) 1 - 2 Casa Pia Away

Jan 2025 Rio Ave(A) 3 - 1 Casa Pia Home

Nov 2024 Rio Ave 2 - 2 Casa Pia Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Rio Ave won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Rio Ave — unbeaten run (home)0

Rio Ave — scoring streak (home)1

Casa Pia — winless run (away)1

Casa Pia — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Rio Ave Win (1)36%

Draw (X)25%

Casa Pia Win (2)38%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

59% +0.5 50%

29% +1.5 22%

12% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

41% -0.5 50%

71% -1.5 78%

88% -2.5 100%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Rio Ave vs Casa Pia — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Rio Ave — scored (home)1

Rio Ave — conceded (home)1.71

Casa Pia — scored (away)0.72

Casa Pia — conceded (away)1.72

Model expected combined goals2.8

Both Teams To Score

Yes57%

No43%

Rate per Team

Rio Ave — BTTS matches (home)53%

Casa Pia — BTTS matches (away)33%

Combined (simple average)43%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.597%

Under 4.53%

Over 5.597%

Under 5.53%

Over 6.589%

Under 6.511%

Over 7.583%

Under 7.517%

Over 8.572%

Under 8.528%

Over 9.566%

Under 9.534%

Over 10.552%

Under 10.548%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Rio Ave (home)

Corners for5.1

Corners against6.1

Casa Pia (away)

Corners for4.4

Corners against6.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Rio Ave

13 8 16 11 9

Casa Pia

9 10 9 8 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%

Under 0.53%

Over 1.592%

Under 1.58%

Over 2.589%

Under 2.511%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

Rio Ave (home)

For2.5

Casa Pia (away)

For3.0

Shots per Game

Rio Ave — total shots (home)12.4

Casa Pia — total shots (away)9.2

Shots on Target

Rio Ave — on target (home)4.1

Casa Pia — on target (away)2.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Rio Ave

Inside the box6.5

Outside the box4

Casa Pia

Inside the box5.53

Outside the box3.39

Player Shots Rio Ave

Clayton

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target58%

+1.5 On Target47%

J. Blesa

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target69%

+1.5 On Target31%

André Luiz

Shots on Target/Game1

+0.5 On Target63%

+1.5 On Target21%

M. Vrousai

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target13%

Tamble Monteiro

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target15%

Player Shots Casa Pia

Gaizka Larrazabal

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target46%

+1.5 On Target14%

Max Svensson

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target17%

J. Livolant

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target37%

+1.5 On Target9%

Cassiano

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target27%

+1.5 On Target12%

D. Livramento

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Rio Ave xG (home)1.04

Casa Pia xG (away)0.93

Average Possession

47.03% Possession 41.17%

Team Comparison Rio Ave vs Casa Pia

81.68% Pass accuracy 71.94%

386.65 Passes per match 299.28

0.13 Goals prevented -0.13

12.88 Fouls committed 16.06

3.38 Goalkeeper saves 2.78

1.57 Offsides 1.51

15.59 Tackles per match 15.19

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Rio Ave vs Casa Pia prediction analysis

Review Rio Ave vs Casa Pia with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights