Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Rio Ave vs Santa Clara

Rio Ave vs Santa Clara prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

Back to Predictions
Primeira Liga 2025-04-18 14:30
Rio Ave
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
47%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Santa Clara
Away

Prediction Summary

1
37%
X
27%
2
37%
Under 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
52%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Rio Ave (Home)

Goals scored / match1.47
Goals conceded / match1.41
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate71%

Santa Clara (Away)

Goals scored / match1.06
Goals conceded / match1.06
Over 2.5 rate6%
BTTS rate47%

Team Form last 5 matches

Rio Ave
DDWLD
Santa Clara
WWDWD

Goals Comparison rate per team

88% +0.5 65%
53% +1.5 29%
6% +2.5 6%
0% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%
71% BTTS 47%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Low.

Rio Ave averages 1.47 goals scored at home, while Santa Clara averages 1.06 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
37%
Draw
27%
Away Win
37%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Yes
52%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Rio Ave(A) 2 - 0 Santa Clara Home
Nov 2025 Rio Ave 1 - 1 Santa Clara Draw
Apr 2025 Rio Ave 1 - 1 Santa Clara Draw
Dec 2024 Rio Ave(A) 0 - 1 Santa Clara Away
Mar 2023 Rio Ave(A) 2 - 0 Santa Clara Home

In the last 5 meetings, Rio Ave won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Rio Ave — unbeaten run (home)3
Rio Ave — scoring streak (home)3
Santa Clara — winless run (away)0
Santa Clara — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Rio Ave Win (1)37%
Draw (X)27%
Santa Clara Win (2)37%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

88% +0.5 65%
53% +1.5 29%
6% +2.5 6%
0% +3.5 6%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

12% -0.5 35%
47% -1.5 71%
94% -2.5 94%
100% -3.5 94%
100% -4.5 100%

Rio Ave vs Santa Clara — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Rio Ave — scored (home)1.47
Rio Ave — conceded (home)1.41
Santa Clara — scored (away)1.06
Santa Clara — conceded (away)1.06
Model expected combined goals2.57

Both Teams To Score

Yes52%
No48%

Rate per Team

Rio Ave — BTTS matches (home)71%
Santa Clara — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)59%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.594%
Under 4.56%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.576%
Under 6.524%
Over 7.571%
Under 7.529%
Over 8.550%
Under 8.550%
Over 9.539%
Under 9.561%
Over 10.530%
Under 10.570%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Rio Ave (home)

Corners for5.0
Corners against5.6

Santa Clara (away)

Corners for3.2
Corners against5.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Rio Ave
10 10 8 9 13
Santa Clara
10 8 8 9 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Rio Ave (home)

For2.2

Santa Clara (away)

For3.6

Shots per Game

Rio Ave — total shots (home)12.1
Santa Clara — total shots (away)9.2

Shots on Target

Rio Ave — on target (home)4.2
Santa Clara — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Rio Ave

Inside the box6.79
Outside the box4.26

Santa Clara

Inside the box6.97
Outside the box4.21

Player Shots Rio Ave

F. Petrasso
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target14%
Clayton
Shots on Target/Game1.8
+0.5 On Target74%
+1.5 On Target35%
Koka
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target22%
+1.5 On Target11%
E. Tıknaz
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target7%
João Novais
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target17%
+1.5 On Target3%

Player Shots Santa Clara

Wendel
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
Serginho
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target3%
Ricardinho
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target11%
Gabriel Silva
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target64%
+1.5 On Target12%
Vinícius Lopes
Shots on Target/Game1.2
+0.5 On Target45%
+1.5 On Target9%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Rio Ave xG (home)1.07
Santa Clara xG (away)1.24

Average Possession

47.71% Possession 44.47%

Team Comparison Rio Ave vs Santa Clara

79.59% Pass accuracy 74.5%
389.88 Passes per match 340
-0.09 Goals prevented 0.13
13.5 Fouls committed 16.62
3.53 Goalkeeper saves 2.48
2.79 Offsides 1.97
17.68 Tackles per match 16.29

League average xG this season is 1.21 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Rio Ave vs Santa Clara prediction analysis

Review Rio Ave vs Santa Clara with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
Scroll to Top