Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Roda vs Helmond Sport

Roda vs Helmond Sport prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Eerste Divisie 2026-08-14 18:00
Roda
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
50%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Helmond Sport
Away

Prediction Summary

1
50%
X
25%
2
24%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS · No edge
50%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Roda (Home)

Goals scored / match1.35
Goals conceded / match1.45
Over 2.5 rate10%
BTTS rate55%

Helmond Sport (Away)

Goals scored / match0.58
Goals conceded / match1.79
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate37%

Team Form last 5 matches

Roda
DDLDW
Helmond Sport
LWDDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

75% +0.5 47%
35% +1.5 5%
10% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%
55% BTTS 37%

Model Insight

The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 50%. Model confidence is Low.

Roda averages 1.35 goals scored at home, while Helmond Sport averages 0.58 goals scored away.

Model Strength
52%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
50%
Draw
25%
Away Win
24%
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS Yes
50%

Head-to-Head last 5

Mar 2026 Roda 1 - 1 Helmond Sport Draw
Aug 2025 Roda(A) 3 - 1 Helmond Sport Home
Mar 2025 Roda 3 - 2 Helmond Sport Home
Oct 2024 Roda(A) 1 - 2 Helmond Sport Away
Dec 2023 Roda(A) 3 - 3 Helmond Sport Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Roda won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Roda — unbeaten run (home)2
Roda — scoring streak (home)2
Helmond Sport — winless run (away)6
Helmond Sport — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Roda Win (1)50%
Draw (X)25%
Helmond Sport Win (2)24%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

75% +0.5 47%
35% +1.5 5%
10% +2.5 5%
5% +3.5 0%
5% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

25% -0.5 53%
65% -1.5 95%
90% -2.5 95%
95% -3.5 100%
95% -4.5 100%

Roda vs Helmond Sport — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Roda — scored (home)1.35
Roda — conceded (home)1.45
Helmond Sport — scored (away)0.58
Helmond Sport — conceded (away)1.79
Model expected combined goals2.58

Both Teams To Score

Yes50%
No50%

Rate per Team

Roda — BTTS matches (home)55%
Helmond Sport — BTTS matches (away)37%
Combined (simple average)46%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.567%
Under 8.533%
Over 9.557%
Under 9.543%
Over 10.546%
Under 10.554%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Roda (home)

Corners for6.1
Corners against5.3

Helmond Sport (away)

Corners for4.9
Corners against5.5

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Roda
12 11 10 8 16
Helmond Sport
8 1 8 6 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Roda (home)

For1.5

Helmond Sport (away)

For1.9

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.577%
Under 19.523%
Over 22.564%
Under 22.536%
Over 25.550%
Under 25.550%
Expected total shots26.16

Roda

Shots Over 9.582%
Shots Over 11.569%
Shots Over 13.553%
Expected shots14.44
On Target Over 3.573%
On Target Over 4.557%
On Target Over 5.542%
Expected on target5.21

Helmond Sport

Shots Over 9.566%
Shots Over 11.548%
Shots Over 13.532%
Expected shots11.72
On Target Over 3.556%
On Target Over 4.539%
On Target Over 5.524%
Expected on target4.10

Shots per Game

Roda — total shots (home)14.4
Helmond Sport — total shots (away)11.5

Shots on Target

Roda — on target (home)5.2
Helmond Sport — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Roda

Inside the box9.63
Outside the box4.39

Helmond Sport

Inside the box7.39
Outside the box4.37

Player Shots Roda

F. Janssen
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target25%
A. van den Hurk
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target66%
+1.5 On Target34%
J. Cooper
Shots on Target/Game1.7
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target18%
M. Breij
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target22%
J. Schwirten
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target36%
+1.5 On Target9%

Player Shots Helmond Sport

L. Daneels
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target10%
A. Et-Taïbi
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target21%
+1.5 On Target5%
M. Łukowicz
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target17%
O. Zimuangana
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
B. Koglin
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target6%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Roda xG (home)2.02
Helmond Sport xG (away)1.17

Average Possession

52.16% Possession 48.92%

Team Comparison Roda vs Helmond Sport

79.27% Pass accuracy 80.01%
444.26 Passes per match 405.79
0 Goals prevented 0
10 Fouls committed 14.34
3.45 Goalkeeper saves 2.47
2.46 Offsides 2
14.66 Tackles per match 17.39

League average xG this season is 1.67 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Roda vs Helmond Sport prediction analysis

Review Roda vs Helmond Sport with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Eerste Divisie.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Eerste Divisie
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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