Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Santa Clara vs Casa Pia

Santa Clara vs Casa Pia prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primeira Liga 2025-12-06 15:30
Santa Clara
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
48%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Casa Pia
Away

Prediction Summary

1
47%
X
26%
2
27%
Under 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Santa Clara (Home)

Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate35%

Casa Pia (Away)

Goals scored / match0.72
Goals conceded / match1.72
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate33%

Team Form last 5 matches

Santa Clara
LWDWD
Casa Pia
WDDWL

Goals Comparison rate per team

65% +0.5 50%
35% +1.5 22%
0% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
35% BTTS 33%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 48%. Model confidence is Low.

Santa Clara averages 1 goals scored at home, while Casa Pia averages 0.72 goals scored away.

Model Strength
52%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
47%
Draw
26%
Away Win
27%
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS Yes
51%

Head-to-Head last 5

Apr 2026 Santa Clara(A) 0 - 0 Casa Pia Draw
Dec 2025 Santa Clara 1 - 0 Casa Pia Home
Feb 2025 Santa Clara 2 - 1 Casa Pia Home
Aug 2024 Santa Clara(A) 2 - 0 Casa Pia Home
Jan 2023 Santa Clara(A) 1 - 2 Casa Pia Away

In the last 5 meetings, Santa Clara won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Santa Clara — unbeaten run (home)2
Santa Clara — scoring streak (home)2
Casa Pia — winless run (away)1
Casa Pia — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Santa Clara Win (1)47%
Draw (X)26%
Casa Pia Win (2)27%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

65% +0.5 50%
35% +1.5 22%
0% +2.5 0%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

35% -0.5 50%
65% -1.5 78%
100% -2.5 100%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Santa Clara vs Casa Pia — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Santa Clara — scored (home)1
Santa Clara — conceded (home)1
Casa Pia — scored (away)0.72
Casa Pia — conceded (away)1.72
Model expected combined goals2.58

Both Teams To Score

Yes51%
No49%

Rate per Team

Santa Clara — BTTS matches (home)35%
Casa Pia — BTTS matches (away)33%
Combined (simple average)34%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.594%
Under 4.56%
Over 5.591%
Under 5.59%
Over 6.580%
Under 6.520%
Over 7.569%
Under 7.531%
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.549%
Under 9.551%
Over 10.537%
Under 10.563%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Santa Clara (home)

Corners for4.5
Corners against4.2

Casa Pia (away)

Corners for4.4
Corners against6.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Santa Clara
10 5 11 10 13
Casa Pia
9 10 9 8 15

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.597%
Under 0.53%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.586%
Under 2.514%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.9

Yellow Cards per Team

Santa Clara (home)

For3.4

Casa Pia (away)

For3.0

Shots per Game

Santa Clara — total shots (home)11.6
Casa Pia — total shots (away)9.2

Shots on Target

Santa Clara — on target (home)3.1
Casa Pia — on target (away)2.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Santa Clara

Inside the box6.62
Outside the box5.09

Casa Pia

Inside the box5.53
Outside the box3.39

Player Shots Santa Clara

Gabriel Silva
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target10%
Vinícius Lopes
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
Gonçalo Paciência
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
Wendel
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
MT
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target17%

Player Shots Casa Pia

Gaizka Larrazabal
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target14%
Max Svensson
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target17%
J. Livolant
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target9%
Cassiano
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target12%
D. Livramento
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target4%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Santa Clara xG (home)1.07
Casa Pia xG (away)0.93

Average Possession

48.44% Possession 41.17%

Team Comparison Santa Clara vs Casa Pia

79.29% Pass accuracy 71.94%
368.82 Passes per match 299.28
-0.12 Goals prevented -0.13
14.85 Fouls committed 16.06
2.48 Goalkeeper saves 2.78
1.78 Offsides 1.51
15.56 Tackles per match 15.19

League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Santa Clara vs Casa Pia prediction analysis

Review Santa Clara vs Casa Pia with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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