Prediction Analysis: Santa Clara vs Nacional
Santa Clara vs Nacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Primeira Liga
2026-08-10
19:15
Santa Clara
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Home Win
Pick
Santa Clara
Probability
41%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Nacional
Away
Prediction Summary
1
41%
X
30%
2
29%
Under 2.5
66%
BTTS No
59%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Santa Clara (Home)
Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate35%
Nacional (Away)
Goals scored / match0.82
Goals conceded / match1.29
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate47%
Team Form last 5 matches
Santa Clara
LWDWD
Nacional
WLLWW
Goals Comparison rate per team
65%
+0.5
65%
35%
+1.5
18%
0%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
35%
BTTS
47%
Model Insight
The selected market is Home Win with a probability of 41%. Model confidence is Medium.
Santa Clara averages 1 goals scored at home, while Nacional averages 0.82 goals scored away.
Model Strength
66%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
41%
Draw
30%
Away Win
29%
Over 2.5
34%
BTTS Yes
41%
Head-to-Head last 5
May 2026
Santa Clara
2 - 0
Nacional
Home
Jan 2026
Santa Clara(A)
3 - 3
Nacional
Draw
Mar 2025
Santa Clara
1 - 0
Nacional
Home
Nov 2024
Santa Clara(A)
0 - 2
Nacional
Away
Mar 2024
Santa Clara
0 - 1
Nacional
Away
In the last 5 meetings, Santa Clara won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
Current Streaks
Santa Clara — unbeaten run (home)2
Santa Clara — scoring streak (home)2
Nacional — winless run (away)1
Nacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Santa Clara Win (1)41%
Draw (X)30%
Nacional Win (2)29%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
65%
+0.5
65%
35%
+1.5
18%
0%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
35%
-0.5
35%
65%
-1.5
82%
100%
-2.5
100%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Santa Clara vs Nacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Santa Clara — scored (home)1
Santa Clara — conceded (home)1
Nacional — scored (away)0.82
Nacional — conceded (away)1.29
Model expected combined goals2.06
Both Teams To Score
Yes41%
No59%
Rate per Team
Santa Clara — BTTS matches (home)35%
Nacional — BTTS matches (away)47%
Combined (simple average)41%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.557%
Under 8.543%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.538%
Under 10.562%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Santa Clara (home)
Corners for4.5
Corners against4.2
Nacional (away)
Corners for4.0
Corners against5.9
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Santa Clara
10
5
11
10
13
Nacional
12
15
14
10
8
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.597%
Under 1.53%
Over 2.585%
Under 2.515%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.5
Yellow Cards per Team
Santa Clara (home)
For3.4
Nacional (away)
For2.6
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.567%
Under 19.533%
Over 22.553%
Under 22.547%
Over 25.539%
Under 25.561%
Expected total shots24.01
Santa Clara
Shots Over 9.573%
Shots Over 11.558%
Shots Over 13.543%
Expected shots13.16
On Target Over 3.557%
On Target Over 4.540%
On Target Over 5.526%
Expected on target4.21
Nacional
Shots Over 9.557%
Shots Over 11.540%
Shots Over 13.526%
Expected shots10.84
On Target Over 3.549%
On Target Over 4.532%
On Target Over 5.519%
Expected on target3.70
Shots per Game
Santa Clara — total shots (home)11.6
Nacional — total shots (away)12.5
Shots on Target
Santa Clara — on target (home)3.1
Nacional — on target (away)4.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Santa Clara
Inside the box6.62
Outside the box5.09
Nacional
Inside the box7.32
Outside the box5.24
Player Shots Santa Clara
Gabriel Silva
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target55%
+1.5 On Target10%
Vinícius Lopes
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target7%
Gonçalo Paciência
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%
Wendel
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target8%
MT
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target25%
+1.5 On Target17%
Player Shots Nacional
C. Ramírez
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target85%
+1.5 On Target36%
Paulinho Bóia
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target12%
Daniel Júnior
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target53%
+1.5 On Target0%
Gabriel Veron
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target23%
+1.5 On Target8%
Zé Vitor
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Santa Clara xG (home)1.07
Nacional xG (away)1.15
Average Possession
48.44%
Possession
46.12%
Team Comparison Santa Clara vs Nacional
79.29%
Pass accuracy
75.62%
368.82
Passes per match
332.56
-0.12
Goals prevented
0.02
14.85
Fouls committed
14.91
2.48
Goalkeeper saves
3.12
1.78
Offsides
1.39
15.56
Tackles per match
16.41
League average xG this season is 1.3 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Santa Clara vs Nacional prediction analysis
Review Santa Clara vs Nacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primeira Liga.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Primeira Liga
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights