Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga

Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Primera A 2025-03-19 23:30
Santa Fe
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
26%
Confidence
High
Score
1-0
Bucaramanga
Away

Prediction Summary

1
48%
X
32%
2
20%
Under 2.5
74%
BTTS No
69%
Confidence
High

Market Evidence

Santa Fe (Home)

Goals scored / match1.19
Goals conceded / match0.81
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate44%

Bucaramanga (Away)

Goals scored / match1.05
Goals conceded / match1.09
Over 2.5 rate9%
BTTS rate55%

Team Form last 5 matches

Santa Fe
DWLLW
Bucaramanga
DDWLD

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 68%
33% +1.5 23%
11% +2.5 9%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%
44% BTTS 55%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 26%. Model confidence is High.

Santa Fe averages 1.19 goals scored at home, while Bucaramanga averages 1.05 goals scored away.

Model Strength
74%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
48%
Draw
32%
Away Win
20%
Over 2.5
26%
BTTS Yes
31%

Head-to-Head last 4

Dec 2025 Santa Fe 0 - 0 Bucaramanga Draw
Nov 2025 Santa Fe(A) 0 - 1 Bucaramanga Away
Aug 2025 Santa Fe(A) 1 - 2 Bucaramanga Away
Mar 2025 Santa Fe 1 - 1 Bucaramanga Draw

In the last 4 meetings, Santa Fe won 0, drew 2 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Santa Fe — unbeaten run (home)1
Santa Fe — scoring streak (home)0
Bucaramanga — winless run (away)1
Bucaramanga — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Santa Fe Win (1)48%
Draw (X)32%
Bucaramanga Win (2)20%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 68%
33% +1.5 23%
11% +2.5 9%
0% +3.5 5%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 32%
67% -1.5 77%
89% -2.5 91%
100% -3.5 95%
100% -4.5 100%

Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Santa Fe — scored (home)1.19
Santa Fe — conceded (home)0.81
Bucaramanga — scored (away)1.05
Bucaramanga — conceded (away)1.09
Model expected combined goals1.75

Both Teams To Score

Yes31%
No69%

Rate per Team

Santa Fe — BTTS matches (home)44%
Bucaramanga — BTTS matches (away)55%
Combined (simple average)49.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.591%
Under 4.59%
Over 5.585%
Under 5.515%
Over 6.578%
Under 6.522%
Over 7.563%
Under 7.537%
Over 8.550%
Under 8.550%
Over 9.546%
Under 9.554%
Over 10.533%
Under 10.567%
Expected total corners (blended average)8.90

Per-Team Corners own matches

Santa Fe (home)

Corners for5.4
Corners against3.5

Bucaramanga (away)

Corners for4.8
Corners against4.0

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Santa Fe
6 8 8 12 7
Bucaramanga
8 11 11 8 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.596%
Under 0.54%
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.588%
Under 2.512%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Santa Fe (home)

For3.1

Bucaramanga (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Santa Fe — total shots (home)14.7
Bucaramanga — total shots (away)11.2

Shots on Target

Santa Fe — on target (home)4.7
Bucaramanga — on target (away)3.3

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Santa Fe

Inside the box7.04
Outside the box5.44

Bucaramanga

Inside the box7.09
Outside the box5.84

Player Shots Santa Fe

H. Rodallega
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target81%
+1.5 On Target37%
H. Mosquera
Shots on Target/Game0.9
+0.5 On Target51%
+1.5 On Target22%
A. Zapata
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target46%
+1.5 On Target11%
Y. Perlaza
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target27%
+1.5 On Target9%
O. Fernández
Shots on Target/Game0.3
+0.5 On Target30%
+1.5 On Target5%

Player Shots Bucaramanga

L. Pons
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target76%
+1.5 On Target32%
F. Sambueza
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target52%
+1.5 On Target16%
F. Castañeda
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target14%
F. Gil
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target38%
+1.5 On Target5%
A. Andrade
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target0%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Santa Fe xG (home)1.08
Bucaramanga xG (away)1.14

Average Possession

48.19% Possession 53.98%

Team Comparison Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga

77.09% Pass accuracy 80.57%
334.04 Passes per match 388.5
0 Goals prevented 0
11.52 Fouls committed 11.86
3.46 Goalkeeper saves 2.2
1.38 Offsides 1.72
10.54 Tackles per match 13.23

League average xG this season is 1.14 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga prediction analysis

Review Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Primera A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Primera A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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