Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Santos Laguna vs Atlas

Santos Laguna vs Atlas prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Liga MX 2026-07-26 03:00
Santos Laguna
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
52%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Atlas
Away

Prediction Summary

1
49%
X
25%
2
26%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Santos Laguna (Home)

Goals scored / match1.39
Goals conceded / match1.28
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate50%

Atlas (Away)

Goals scored / match0.95
Goals conceded / match1.7
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate45%

Team Form last 5 matches

Santos Laguna
LLWLL
Atlas
WWLLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

83% +0.5 65%
39% +1.5 15%
17% +2.5 15%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
50% BTTS 45%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 52%. Model confidence is Low.

Santos Laguna averages 1.39 goals scored at home, while Atlas averages 0.95 goals scored away.

Model Strength
54%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
49%
Draw
25%
Away Win
26%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Yes
54%

Head-to-Head last 5

Jul 2026 Santos Laguna 0 - 1 Atlas Away
Apr 2026 Santos Laguna 0 - 1 Atlas Away
Sep 2025 Santos Laguna(A) 2 - 2 Atlas Draw
Feb 2025 Santos Laguna 2 - 0 Atlas Home
Jul 2024 Santos Laguna(A) 0 - 1 Atlas Away

In the last 5 meetings, Santos Laguna won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Santos Laguna — unbeaten run (home)0
Santos Laguna — scoring streak (home)0
Atlas — winless run (away)0
Atlas — clean sheets (away, last 5)3 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Santos Laguna Win (1)49%
Draw (X)25%
Atlas Win (2)26%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

83% +0.5 65%
39% +1.5 15%
17% +2.5 15%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

17% -0.5 35%
61% -1.5 85%
83% -2.5 85%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Santos Laguna vs Atlas — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Santos Laguna — scored (home)1.39
Santos Laguna — conceded (home)1.28
Atlas — scored (away)0.95
Atlas — conceded (away)1.7
Model expected combined goals2.75

Both Teams To Score

Yes54%
No46%

Rate per Team

Santos Laguna — BTTS matches (home)50%
Atlas — BTTS matches (away)45%
Combined (simple average)47.5%

Corners Line model prediction

Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Santos Laguna (home)

Corners for4.4
Corners against5.2

Atlas (away)

Corners for3.4
Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Santos Laguna
9 13 9 9 9
Atlas
7 7 12 8 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%
Under 0.52%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.579%
Under 2.521%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Santos Laguna (home)

For3.1

Atlas (away)

For2.4

Shots Forecast model prediction

Match Total

Over 19.579%
Under 19.521%
Over 22.566%
Under 22.534%
Over 25.553%
Under 25.547%
Expected total shots27.22

Santos Laguna

Shots Over 9.580%
Shots Over 11.567%
Shots Over 13.552%
Expected shots14.34
On Target Over 3.568%
On Target Over 4.552%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.89

Atlas

Shots Over 9.572%
Shots Over 11.557%
Shots Over 13.541%
Expected shots12.88
On Target Over 3.558%
On Target Over 4.541%
On Target Over 5.527%
Expected on target4.22

Shots per Game

Santos Laguna — total shots (home)12.1
Atlas — total shots (away)9.8

Shots on Target

Santos Laguna — on target (home)4.5
Atlas — on target (away)2.9

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Santos Laguna

Inside the box6.85
Outside the box3.91

Atlas

Inside the box6.14
Outside the box4.44

Player Shots Santos Laguna

Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target8%
+1.5 On Target8%
L. Di Yorio
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target93%
+1.5 On Target33%
H. Ortega
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target10%
B. Amione
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target3%
R. Sordo
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target24%
+1.5 On Target8%

Player Shots Atlas

A. Rodriguez
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target8%
+1.5 On Target8%
D. González
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target15%
A. González
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target13%
U. Đurđević
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target15%
S. Hernández
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target14%
+1.5 On Target3%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Santos Laguna xG (home)1.25
Atlas xG (away)0.98

Average Possession

44.74% Possession 44.92%

Team Comparison Santos Laguna vs Atlas

75.21% Pass accuracy 76.75%
317.5 Passes per match 348.64
-0.09 Goals prevented -0.31
13.32 Fouls committed 12.81
4.15 Goalkeeper saves 3.28
1.75 Offsides 1.8
16.17 Tackles per match 15.35

League average xG this season is 1.32 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Santos Laguna vs Atlas prediction analysis

Review Santos Laguna vs Atlas with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Liga MX.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Liga MX
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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