Prediction Analysis: Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas
Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Liga MX
2026-08-17
01:00
Santos Laguna
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
53%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-1
Guadalajara Chivas
Away
Prediction Summary
1
40%
X
25%
2
35%
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Santos Laguna (Home)
Goals scored / match1.39
Goals conceded / match1.28
Over 2.5 rate17%
BTTS rate50%
Guadalajara Chivas (Away)
Goals scored / match1.4
Goals conceded / match1.5
Over 2.5 rate15%
BTTS rate60%
Team Form last 5 matches
Santos Laguna
LLWLL
Guadalajara Chivas
WLLDW
Goals Comparison rate per team
83%
+0.5
75%
39%
+1.5
50%
17%
+2.5
15%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
50%
BTTS
60%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Medium.
Santos Laguna averages 1.39 goals scored at home, while Guadalajara Chivas averages 1.4 goals scored away.
Model Strength
56%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
40%
Draw
25%
Away Win
35%
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
Head-to-Head last 5
Mar 2026
Santos Laguna(A)
0 - 3
Guadalajara Chivas
Away
Aug 2025
Santos Laguna
1 - 0
Guadalajara Chivas
Home
Jan 2025
Santos Laguna(A)
0 - 1
Guadalajara Chivas
Away
Nov 2024
Santos Laguna
0 - 2
Guadalajara Chivas
Away
Jan 2024
Santos Laguna(A)
1 - 1
Guadalajara Chivas
Draw
In the last 5 meetings, Santos Laguna won 1, drew 1 and lost 3.
Current Streaks
Santos Laguna — unbeaten run (home)0
Santos Laguna — scoring streak (home)0
Guadalajara Chivas — winless run (away)4
Guadalajara Chivas — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5
1X2 Probability model
Santos Laguna Win (1)40%
Draw (X)25%
Guadalajara Chivas Win (2)35%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
83%
+0.5
75%
39%
+1.5
50%
17%
+2.5
15%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
17%
-0.5
25%
61%
-1.5
50%
83%
-2.5
85%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Santos Laguna — scored (home)1.39
Santos Laguna — conceded (home)1.28
Guadalajara Chivas — scored (away)1.4
Guadalajara Chivas — conceded (away)1.5
Model expected combined goals2.78
Both Teams To Score
Yes56%
No44%
Rate per Team
Santos Laguna — BTTS matches (home)50%
Guadalajara Chivas — BTTS matches (away)60%
Combined (simple average)55%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.559%
Under 8.541%
Over 9.548%
Under 9.552%
Over 10.539%
Under 10.561%
Expected total corners (model prediction)9.70
Per-Team Corners own matches
Santos Laguna (home)
Corners for4.4
Corners against5.2
Guadalajara Chivas (away)
Corners for4.9
Corners against3.4
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Santos Laguna
9
13
9
9
9
Guadalajara Chivas
14
7
15
10
21
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.598%
Under 1.52%
Over 2.587%
Under 2.513%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4
Yellow Cards per Team
Santos Laguna (home)
For3.1
Guadalajara Chivas (away)
For2.2
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.578%
Under 19.522%
Over 22.566%
Under 22.534%
Over 25.552%
Under 25.548%
Expected total shots26.96
Santos Laguna
Shots Over 9.574%
Shots Over 11.559%
Shots Over 13.544%
Expected shots13.21
On Target Over 3.562%
On Target Over 4.545%
On Target Over 5.531%
Expected on target4.49
Guadalajara Chivas
Shots Over 9.577%
Shots Over 11.563%
Shots Over 13.548%
Expected shots13.75
On Target Over 3.562%
On Target Over 4.546%
On Target Over 5.531%
Expected on target4.50
Shots per Game
Santos Laguna — total shots (home)12.1
Guadalajara Chivas — total shots (away)14.4
Shots on Target
Santos Laguna — on target (home)4.5
Guadalajara Chivas — on target (away)4.2
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Santos Laguna
Inside the box6.85
Outside the box3.91
Guadalajara Chivas
Inside the box9.48
Outside the box6.55
Player Shots Santos Laguna
Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target8%
+1.5 On Target8%
L. Di Yorio
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target93%
+1.5 On Target33%
H. Ortega
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target19%
+1.5 On Target10%
B. Amione
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target6%
+1.5 On Target3%
R. Sordo
Shots on Target/Game1.3
+0.5 On Target24%
+1.5 On Target8%
Player Shots Guadalajara Chivas
A. González
Shots on Target/Game1.6
+0.5 On Target83%
+1.5 On Target33%
Santiago Sandoval
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target15%
B. González
Shots on Target/Game1.5
+0.5 On Target37%
+1.5 On Target12%
E. Álvarez
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target40%
+1.5 On Target13%
R. Alvarado
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target47%
+1.5 On Target19%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Santos Laguna xG (home)1.25
Guadalajara Chivas xG (away)1.66
Average Possession
44.74%
Possession
56.65%
Team Comparison Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas
75.21%
Pass accuracy
85.71%
317.5
Passes per match
479.55
-0.09
Goals prevented
-0.27
13.32
Fouls committed
12
4.15
Goalkeeper saves
2.69
1.75
Offsides
2.13
16.17
Tackles per match
13.95
League average xG this season is 1.32 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction and preview
Preview Santos Laguna vs Guadalajara Chivas with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Liga MX
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights