Prediction Analysis: Santos vs Atletico Paranaense
Santos vs Atletico Paranaense prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-08-09
21:30
Santos
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
BTTS Yes
Pick
Yes
Probability
53%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-1
Atletico Paranaense
Away
Prediction Summary
1
29%
X
25%
2
46%
O/U 2.5 · No edge
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
Confidence
Low
Market Evidence
Santos (Home)
Goals scored / match1.3
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate45%
Atletico Paranaense (Away)
Goals scored / match2
Goals conceded / match1
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate100%
Team Form last 5 matches
Santos
DLWWW
Atletico Paranaense
WW
Goals Comparison rate per team
75%
+0.5
100%
35%
+1.5
100%
20%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
45%
BTTS
100%
Model Insight
The selected market is BTTS Yes with a probability of 53%. Model confidence is Low.
Santos averages 1.3 goals scored at home, while Atletico Paranaense averages 2 goals scored away.
Model Strength
53%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
29%
Draw
25%
Away Win
46%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
Head-to-Head last 5
Dec 2023
Santos(A)
0 - 3
Atletico Paranaense
Away
Aug 2023
Santos
1 - 1
Atletico Paranaense
Draw
Sep 2022
Santos
2 - 0
Atletico Paranaense
Home
Jun 2022
Santos(A)
2 - 2
Atletico Paranaense
Draw
Oct 2021
Santos(A)
1 - 0
Atletico Paranaense
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Santos won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Santos — unbeaten run (home)6
Santos — scoring streak (home)6
Atletico Paranaense — winless run (away)0
Atletico Paranaense — clean sheets (away, last 1)0 of 1
1X2 Probability model
Santos Win (1)29%
Draw (X)25%
Atletico Paranaense Win (2)46%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
75%
+0.5
100%
35%
+1.5
100%
20%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
25%
-0.5
0%
65%
-1.5
0%
80%
-2.5
100%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Santos vs Atletico Paranaense — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Santos — scored (home)1.3
Santos — conceded (home)1.05
Atletico Paranaense — scored (away)2
Atletico Paranaense — conceded (away)1
Model expected combined goals2.68
Both Teams To Score
Yes53%
No47%
Rate per Team
Santos — BTTS matches (home)45%
Atletico Paranaense — BTTS matches (away)100%
Combined (simple average)72.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Santos (home)
Corners for6.1
Corners against4.4
Atletico Paranaense (away)
Corners for—
Corners against—
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Santos
12
8
12
10
12
Atletico Paranaense
10
10
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.550%
Under 1.550%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)3.3
Yellow Cards per Team
Santos (home)
For2.5
Atletico Paranaense (away)
For—
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.579%
Under 19.521%
Over 22.566%
Under 22.534%
Over 25.552%
Under 25.548%
Expected total shots26.61
Santos
Shots Over 9.587%
Shots Over 11.575%
Shots Over 13.561%
Expected shots15.46
On Target Over 3.570%
On Target Over 4.553%
On Target Over 5.537%
Expected on target4.94
Atletico Paranaense
Shots Over 9.562%
Shots Over 11.543%
Shots Over 13.527%
Expected shots11.15
On Target Over 3.551%
On Target Over 4.533%
On Target Over 5.520%
Expected on target3.78
Shots per Game
Santos — total shots (home)16.1
Atletico Paranaense — total shots (away)—
Shots on Target
Santos — on target (home)4.8
Atletico Paranaense — on target (away)—
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Santos
Inside the box8.05
Outside the box5.13
Atletico Paranaense
Inside the box-
Outside the box-
Player Shots Santos
Neymar
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target38%
Guilherme
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target13%
Á. Barreal
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target17%
B. Rollheiser
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target16%
Victor Hugo
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots Atletico Paranaense
Not enough dataNot enough player match statistics for this squad.
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Santos xG (home)1.25
Atletico Paranaense xG (away)-
Average Possession
49.68%
Possession
-%
Team Comparison Santos vs Atletico Paranaense
82.87%
Pass accuracy
0%
394.58
Passes per match
-
-0.02
Goals prevented
-
13.74
Fouls committed
-
3.42
Goalkeeper saves
-
1.68
Offsides
-
18
Tackles per match
16.5
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Santos vs Atletico Paranaense prediction and preview
Preview Santos vs Atletico Paranaense with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, recent form and key team performance data.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights