Prediction Analysis: Santos vs Chapecoense-sc
Santos vs Chapecoense-sc prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.
Serie A
2026-07-25
21:30
Santos
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
36%
Confidence
Medium
Score
1-0
Chapecoense-sc
Away
Prediction Summary
1
65%
X
24%
2
11%
Under 2.5
64%
BTTS No
68%
Confidence
Medium
Market Evidence
Santos (Home)
Goals scored / match1.3
Goals conceded / match1.05
Over 2.5 rate20%
BTTS rate45%
Chapecoense-sc (Away)
Goals scored / match1
Goals conceded / match2
Over 2.5 rate0%
BTTS rate50%
Team Form last 5 matches
Santos
DLWWW
Chapecoense-sc
DLL
Goals Comparison rate per team
75%
+0.5
50%
35%
+1.5
50%
20%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
45%
BTTS
50%
Model Insight
The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 36%. Model confidence is Medium.
Santos averages 1.3 goals scored at home, while Chapecoense-sc averages 1 goals scored away.
Model Strength
68%
Other Top Markets for This Match
Home Win
65%
Draw
24%
Away Win
11%
Over 2.5
36%
BTTS Yes
32%
Head-to-Head last 5
Jul 2026
Santos
2 - 2
Chapecoense-sc
Draw
Oct 2024
Santos(A)
2 - 3
Chapecoense-sc
Away
Jul 2024
Santos
1 - 0
Chapecoense-sc
Home
Nov 2021
Santos
2 - 0
Chapecoense-sc
Home
Aug 2021
Santos(A)
1 - 0
Chapecoense-sc
Home
In the last 5 meetings, Santos won 3, drew 1 and lost 1.
Current Streaks
Santos — unbeaten run (home)6
Santos — scoring streak (home)6
Chapecoense-sc — winless run (away)2
Chapecoense-sc — clean sheets (away, last 2)0 of 2
1X2 Probability model
Santos Win (1)65%
Draw (X)24%
Chapecoense-sc Win (2)11%
Goals Over rate per team, own matches
75%
+0.5
50%
35%
+1.5
50%
20%
+2.5
0%
0%
+3.5
0%
0%
+4.5
0%
Goals Under rate per team, own matches
25%
-0.5
50%
65%
-1.5
50%
80%
-2.5
100%
100%
-3.5
100%
100%
-4.5
100%
Santos vs Chapecoense-sc — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.
Goal Averages per Team
Santos — scored (home)1.3
Santos — conceded (home)1.05
Chapecoense-sc — scored (away)1
Chapecoense-sc — conceded (away)2
Model expected combined goals2.13
Both Teams To Score
Yes32%
No68%
Rate per Team
Santos — BTTS matches (home)45%
Chapecoense-sc — BTTS matches (away)50%
Combined (simple average)47.5%
Corners Line model prediction
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.553%
Under 9.547%
Over 10.543%
Under 10.557%
Expected total corners (model prediction)10.10
Per-Team Corners own matches
Santos (home)
Corners for6.1
Corners against4.4
Chapecoense-sc (away)
Corners for—
Corners against—
Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners
Santos
12
8
12
10
12
Chapecoense-sc
15
8
12
Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate
Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.5100%
Under 1.50%
Over 2.570%
Under 2.530%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5
Yellow Cards per Team
Santos (home)
For2.5
Chapecoense-sc (away)
For—
Shots Forecast model prediction
Match Total
Over 19.579%
Under 19.521%
Over 22.566%
Under 22.534%
Over 25.551%
Under 25.549%
Expected total shots26.53
Santos
Shots Over 9.587%
Shots Over 11.575%
Shots Over 13.561%
Expected shots15.48
On Target Over 3.571%
On Target Over 4.555%
On Target Over 5.540%
Expected on target5.08
Chapecoense-sc
Shots Over 9.561%
Shots Over 11.542%
Shots Over 13.527%
Expected shots11.05
On Target Over 3.550%
On Target Over 4.532%
On Target Over 5.519%
Expected on target3.73
Shots per Game
Santos — total shots (home)16.1
Chapecoense-sc — total shots (away)—
Shots on Target
Santos — on target (home)4.8
Chapecoense-sc — on target (away)—
Shot Location Split avg per match, season
Santos
Inside the box8.05
Outside the box5.13
Chapecoense-sc
Inside the box-
Outside the box-
Player Shots Santos
Neymar
Shots on Target/Game1.4
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target38%
Guilherme
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target56%
+1.5 On Target13%
Á. Barreal
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target17%
B. Rollheiser
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target16%
Victor Hugo
Shots on Target/Game0.4
+0.5 On Target44%
+1.5 On Target0%
Player Shots Chapecoense-sc
Giovanni Augusto
Shots on Target/Game2
+0.5 On Target33%
+1.5 On Target33%
Y. Bolasie
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
Marcinho
Shots on Target/Game1
+0.5 On Target67%
+1.5 On Target0%
Bruno Matias
Shots on Target/Game0
+0.5 On Target0%
+1.5 On Target0%
Doma
Shots on Target/Game0
+0.5 On Target0%
+1.5 On Target0%
Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.
Expected Goals (xG)
Santos xG (home)1.25
Chapecoense-sc xG (away)-
Average Possession
49.68%
Possession
-%
Team Comparison Santos vs Chapecoense-sc
82.87%
Pass accuracy
0%
394.58
Passes per match
-
-0.02
Goals prevented
-
13.74
Fouls committed
-
3.42
Goalkeeper saves
-
1.68
Offsides
-
18
Tackles per match
16.33
League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.
Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS
Santos vs Chapecoense-sc prediction analysis
Review Santos vs Chapecoense-sc with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.
1X2
Over 2.5
BTTS
Recent form
Team performance
Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights