What markets are included in the Santos vs Gremio prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Santos vs Gremio prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Santos vs Gremio

Santos vs Gremio prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-10-02 00:30

Santos

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

47%

Confidence

Low

Score

1-1

Gremio

Away

Prediction Summary

39%

27%

34%

Under 2.5

53%

BTTS Yes

52%

Confidence

Low

Market Evidence

Santos (Home)

Goals scored / match1.26

Goals conceded / match1

Over 2.5 rate21%

BTTS rate42%

Gremio (Away)

Goals scored / match1.21

Goals conceded / match1.74

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Santos

WWWDD

Gremio

WLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 68%

32% +1.5 32%

21% +2.5 16%

0% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

42% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Low.

Santos averages 1.26 goals scored at home, while Gremio averages 1.21 goals scored away.

Model Strength

53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

39%

Draw

27%

Away Win

34%

Over 2.5

47%

BTTS Yes

52%

Head-to-Head last 5

Oct 2025 Santos 1 - 1 Gremio Draw

May 2025 Santos(A) 0 - 1 Gremio Away

Aug 2023 Santos 2 - 1 Gremio Home

Apr 2023 Santos(A) 0 - 1 Gremio Away

Oct 2021 Santos 1 - 0 Gremio Home

In the last 5 meetings, Santos won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Santos — unbeaten run (home)5

Santos — scoring streak (home)5

Gremio — winless run (away)0

Gremio — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Santos Win (1)39%

Draw (X)27%

Gremio Win (2)34%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 68%

32% +1.5 32%

21% +2.5 16%

0% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 32%

68% -1.5 68%

79% -2.5 84%

100% -3.5 95%

100% -4.5 100%

Santos vs Gremio — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Santos — scored (home)1.26

Santos — conceded (home)1

Gremio — scored (away)1.21

Gremio — conceded (away)1.74

Model expected combined goals2.55

Both Teams To Score

Yes52%

No48%

Rate per Team

Santos — BTTS matches (home)42%

Gremio — BTTS matches (away)58%

Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.598%

Under 5.52%

Over 6.589%

Under 6.511%

Over 7.584%

Under 7.516%

Over 8.574%

Under 8.526%

Over 9.558%

Under 9.542%

Over 10.548%

Under 10.552%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.30

Per-Team Corners own matches

Santos (home)

Corners for6.1

Corners against4.4

Gremio (away)

Corners for3.7

Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Santos

12 5 12 8 12

Gremio

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.5100%

Under 1.50%

Over 2.595%

Under 2.55%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Santos (home)

For2.5

Gremio (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Santos — total shots (home)16.1

Gremio — total shots (away)10.1

Shots on Target

Santos — on target (home)4.8

Gremio — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Santos

Inside the box8.05

Outside the box5.13

Gremio

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box5.03

Player Shots Santos

Neymar

Shots on Target/Game1.3

+0.5 On Target65%

+1.5 On Target35%

Guilherme

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target56%

+1.5 On Target13%

Á. Barreal

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target15%

B. Rollheiser

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target31%

+1.5 On Target17%

Victor Hugo

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target0%

Player Shots Gremio

Carlos Vinícius

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target64%

+1.5 On Target36%

M. Braithwaite

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target17%

F. Amuzu

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target18%

André Henrique

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target16%

M. Arezo

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target25%

+1.5 On Target25%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Santos xG (home)1.25

Gremio xG (away)1.29

Average Possession

49.68% Possession 45.16%

Team Comparison Santos vs Gremio

82.87% Pass accuracy 82.32%

394.58 Passes per match 379.66

-0.02 Goals prevented 0.22

13.74 Fouls committed 13.37

3.42 Goalkeeper saves 3.41

1.68 Offsides 1.08

17.89 Tackles per match 17.37

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Santos vs Gremio prediction analysis

Review Santos vs Gremio with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights