What markets are included in the Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG

Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-08-24 23:30

Sao Paulo

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

38%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Atletico-MG

Away

Prediction Summary

46%

28%

26%

Under 2.5

62%

BTTS No

57%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Sao Paulo (Home)

Goals scored / match1.42

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate42%

Atletico-MG (Away)

Goals scored / match0.68

Goals conceded / match1.37

Over 2.5 rate5%

BTTS rate32%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sao Paulo

LWLWL

Atletico-MG

WLLDL

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 42%

58% +1.5 16%

11% +2.5 5%

0% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

42% BTTS 32%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 38%. Model confidence is Medium.

Sao Paulo averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Atletico-MG averages 0.68 goals scored away.

Model Strength

62%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

46%

Draw

28%

Away Win

26%

Over 2.5

38%

BTTS Yes

43%

Head-to-Head last 5

Aug 2025 Sao Paulo 2 - 0 Atletico-MG Home

Apr 2025 Sao Paulo(A) 0 - 0 Atletico-MG Draw

Nov 2024 Sao Paulo 2 - 2 Atletico-MG Draw

Sep 2024 Sao Paulo(A) 0 - 0 Atletico-MG Draw

Aug 2024 Sao Paulo 0 - 1 Atletico-MG Away

In the last 5 meetings, Sao Paulo won 1, drew 3 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Sao Paulo — unbeaten run (home)2

Sao Paulo — scoring streak (home)2

Atletico-MG — winless run (away)2

Atletico-MG — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sao Paulo Win (1)46%

Draw (X)28%

Atletico-MG Win (2)26%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 42%

58% +1.5 16%

11% +2.5 5%

0% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 58%

42% -1.5 84%

89% -2.5 95%

100% -3.5 95%

100% -4.5 100%

Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sao Paulo — scored (home)1.42

Sao Paulo — conceded (home)0.89

Atletico-MG — scored (away)0.68

Atletico-MG — conceded (away)1.37

Model expected combined goals2.2

Both Teams To Score

Yes43%

No57%

Rate per Team

Sao Paulo — BTTS matches (home)42%

Atletico-MG — BTTS matches (away)32%

Combined (simple average)37%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.5100%

Under 5.50%

Over 6.592%

Under 6.58%

Over 7.584%

Under 7.516%

Over 8.563%

Under 8.537%

Over 9.553%

Under 9.547%

Over 10.540%

Under 10.560%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.10

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sao Paulo (home)

Corners for5.1

Corners against4.7

Atletico-MG (away)

Corners for4.8

Corners against5.7

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sao Paulo

9 11 7 13 12

Atletico-MG

10 6 11 16 7

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.595%

Under 1.55%

Over 2.592%

Under 2.58%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Sao Paulo (home)

For2.8

Atletico-MG (away)

For2.4

Shots per Game

Sao Paulo — total shots (home)13.3

Atletico-MG — total shots (away)12.5

Shots on Target

Sao Paulo — on target (home)4.1

Atletico-MG — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sao Paulo

Inside the box7.11

Outside the box4.74

Atletico-MG

Inside the box8.32

Outside the box6.76

Player Shots Sao Paulo

Luciano

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target63%

+1.5 On Target19%

G. Tapia

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target15%

J. Dinenno

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target14%

Ferreira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target4%

André Silva

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Atletico-MG

Rony

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target29%

Hulk

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target52%

+1.5 On Target27%

T. Cuello

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target50%

+1.5 On Target25%

João Marcelo

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target14%

Guilherme Arana

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target28%

+1.5 On Target12%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sao Paulo xG (home)1.15

Atletico-MG xG (away)1.09

Average Possession

52.13% Possession 54.16%

Team Comparison Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG

83.71% Pass accuracy 83.87%

438.63 Passes per match 451.13

0.21 Goals prevented 0.03

14.24 Fouls committed 13.24

3.21 Goalkeeper saves 2.92

1.47 Offsides 1.83

17.21 Tackles per match 15.45

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG prediction analysis

Review Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights