What markets are included in the Sao Paulo vs Ceara prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Sao Paulo vs Ceara prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Sao Paulo vs Ceara

Sao Paulo vs Ceara prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-09-29 23:00

Sao Paulo

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

37%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Ceara

Away

Prediction Summary

47%

28%

25%

Under 2.5

63%

BTTS No

58%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Sao Paulo (Home)

Goals scored / match1.42

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate42%

Ceara (Away)

Goals scored / match0.74

Goals conceded / match1.16

Over 2.5 rate0%

BTTS rate37%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sao Paulo

LWLWL

Ceara

LLDLL

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 53%

58% +1.5 21%

11% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

42% BTTS 37%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 37%. Model confidence is Medium.

Sao Paulo averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Ceara averages 0.74 goals scored away.

Model Strength

63%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

47%

Draw

28%

Away Win

25%

Over 2.5

37%

BTTS Yes

42%

Head-to-Head last 5

Sep 2025 Sao Paulo 0 - 1 Ceara Away

Apr 2025 Sao Paulo(A) 1 - 1 Ceara Draw

Sep 2022 Sao Paulo(A) 2 - 0 Ceara Home

May 2022 Sao Paulo 2 - 2 Ceara Draw

Oct 2021 Sao Paulo 1 - 1 Ceara Draw

In the last 5 meetings, Sao Paulo won 1, drew 3 and lost 1.

Current Streaks

Sao Paulo — unbeaten run (home)2

Sao Paulo — scoring streak (home)2

Ceara — winless run (away)2

Ceara — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sao Paulo Win (1)47%

Draw (X)28%

Ceara Win (2)25%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 53%

58% +1.5 21%

11% +2.5 0%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 47%

42% -1.5 79%

89% -2.5 100%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Sao Paulo vs Ceara — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sao Paulo — scored (home)1.42

Sao Paulo — conceded (home)0.89

Ceara — scored (away)0.74

Ceara — conceded (away)1.16

Model expected combined goals2.18

Both Teams To Score

Yes42%

No58%

Rate per Team

Sao Paulo — BTTS matches (home)42%

Ceara — BTTS matches (away)37%

Combined (simple average)39.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.598%

Under 5.52%

Over 6.587%

Under 6.513%

Over 7.574%

Under 7.526%

Over 8.561%

Under 8.539%

Over 9.550%

Under 9.550%

Over 10.535%

Under 10.565%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sao Paulo (home)

Corners for5.1

Corners against4.7

Ceara (away)

Corners for3.9

Corners against5.8

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sao Paulo

9 11 7 13 12

Ceara

8 18 13 7 14

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.598%

Under 0.52%

Over 1.598%

Under 1.52%

Over 2.592%

Under 2.58%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

Sao Paulo (home)

For2.8

Ceara (away)

For2.6

Shots per Game

Sao Paulo — total shots (home)13.3

Ceara — total shots (away)10.4

Shots on Target

Sao Paulo — on target (home)4.1

Ceara — on target (away)3.8

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sao Paulo

Inside the box7.11

Outside the box4.74

Ceara

Inside the box6.87

Outside the box4.95

Player Shots Sao Paulo

Luciano

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target63%

+1.5 On Target19%

G. Tapia

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target15%

J. Dinenno

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target14%

Ferreira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target4%

André Silva

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Ceara

Pedro Raul

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target65%

+1.5 On Target38%

Éder

Shots on Target/Game0.7

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target0%

Pedro Henrique

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target7%

A. Galeano

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target42%

+1.5 On Target8%

Vina

Shots on Target/Game0.4

+0.5 On Target31%

+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sao Paulo xG (home)1.15

Ceara xG (away)0.96

Average Possession

52.13% Possession 42.03%

Team Comparison Sao Paulo vs Ceara

83.71% Pass accuracy 79.03%

438.63 Passes per match 330.84

0.21 Goals prevented 0.17

14.24 Fouls committed 13.61

3.21 Goalkeeper saves 2.97

1.47 Offsides 2.42

17.21 Tackles per match 15.84

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sao Paulo vs Ceara prediction analysis

Review Sao Paulo vs Ceara with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights