What markets are included in the Sao Paulo vs Fluminense prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Sao Paulo vs Fluminense prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Sao Paulo vs Fluminense

Sao Paulo vs Fluminense prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-07-27 19:00

Sao Paulo

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

36%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Fluminense

Away

Prediction Summary

39%

29%

32%

Under 2.5

64%

BTTS No

57%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Sao Paulo (Home)

Goals scored / match1.42

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate42%

Fluminense (Away)

Goals scored / match1

Goals conceded / match1.47

Over 2.5 rate5%

BTTS rate42%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sao Paulo

LWLWL

Fluminense

WWWDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 58%

58% +1.5 37%

11% +2.5 5%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

42% BTTS 42%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 36%. Model confidence is Medium.

Sao Paulo averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Fluminense averages 1 goals scored away.

Model Strength

64%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

39%

Draw

29%

Away Win

32%

Over 2.5

36%

BTTS Yes

43%

Head-to-Head last 5

Nov 2025 Sao Paulo(A) 0 - 6 Fluminense Away

Jul 2025 Sao Paulo 3 - 1 Fluminense Home

Sep 2024 Sao Paulo(A) 0 - 2 Fluminense Away

May 2024 Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Fluminense Home

Nov 2023 Sao Paulo(A) 0 - 1 Fluminense Away

In the last 5 meetings, Sao Paulo won 2, drew 0 and lost 3.

Current Streaks

Sao Paulo — unbeaten run (home)2

Sao Paulo — scoring streak (home)2

Fluminense — winless run (away)0

Fluminense — clean sheets (away, last 5)2 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sao Paulo Win (1)39%

Draw (X)29%

Fluminense Win (2)32%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 58%

58% +1.5 37%

11% +2.5 5%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 42%

42% -1.5 63%

89% -2.5 95%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Sao Paulo vs Fluminense — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sao Paulo — scored (home)1.42

Sao Paulo — conceded (home)0.89

Fluminense — scored (away)1

Fluminense — conceded (away)1.47

Model expected combined goals2.14

Both Teams To Score

Yes43%

No57%

Rate per Team

Sao Paulo — BTTS matches (home)42%

Fluminense — BTTS matches (away)42%

Combined (simple average)42%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.598%

Under 4.52%

Over 5.595%

Under 5.55%

Over 6.590%

Under 6.510%

Over 7.582%

Under 7.518%

Over 8.571%

Under 8.529%

Over 9.558%

Under 9.542%

Over 10.529%

Under 10.571%

Expected total corners (blended average)9.70

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sao Paulo (home)

Corners for5.1

Corners against4.7

Fluminense (away)

Corners for3.5

Corners against6.2

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sao Paulo

9 11 7 13 12

Fluminense

8 13 7 10 9

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.595%

Under 1.55%

Over 2.590%

Under 2.510%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.3

Yellow Cards per Team

Sao Paulo (home)

For2.8

Fluminense (away)

For2.1

Shots per Game

Sao Paulo — total shots (home)13.3

Fluminense — total shots (away)9.9

Shots on Target

Sao Paulo — on target (home)4.1

Fluminense — on target (away)3.2

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sao Paulo

Inside the box7.11

Outside the box4.74

Fluminense

Inside the box7.53

Outside the box4.74

Player Shots Sao Paulo

Luciano

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target63%

+1.5 On Target19%

G. Tapia

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target15%

J. Dinenno

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target14%

Ferreira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target4%

André Silva

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Fluminense

K. Serna

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target48%

+1.5 On Target9%

G. Cano

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target9%

A. Canobbio

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target33%

+1.5 On Target13%

John Kennedy

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target12%

L. Acosta

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target38%

+1.5 On Target13%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sao Paulo xG (home)1.15

Fluminense xG (away)1.12

Average Possession

52.13% Possession 52.92%

Team Comparison Sao Paulo vs Fluminense

83.71% Pass accuracy 84.87%

438.63 Passes per match 468.34

0.21 Goals prevented -0.1

14.24 Fouls committed 12.84

3.21 Goalkeeper saves 2.51

1.47 Offsides 0.94

17.21 Tackles per match 15

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sao Paulo vs Fluminense prediction analysis

Review Sao Paulo vs Fluminense with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights