What markets are included in the Sao Paulo vs Gremio prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Sao Paulo vs Gremio prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Sao Paulo vs Gremio

Sao Paulo vs Gremio prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-05-18 00:00

Sao Paulo

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

36%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-0

Gremio

Away

Prediction Summary

61%

25%

14%

Under 2.5

64%

BTTS No

65%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Sao Paulo (Home)

Goals scored / match1.42

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate42%

Gremio (Away)

Goals scored / match1.21

Goals conceded / match1.74

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate58%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sao Paulo

LWLWL

Gremio

WLWLW

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 68%

58% +1.5 32%

11% +2.5 16%

0% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

42% BTTS 58%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 36%. Model confidence is Medium.

Sao Paulo averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Gremio averages 1.21 goals scored away.

Model Strength

65%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

61%

Draw

25%

Away Win

14%

Over 2.5

36%

BTTS Yes

35%

Head-to-Head last 5

Oct 2025 Sao Paulo(A) 0 - 2 Gremio Away

May 2025 Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Gremio Home

Dec 2024 Sao Paulo(A) 1 - 2 Gremio Away

Jul 2024 Sao Paulo 1 - 0 Gremio Home

Oct 2023 Sao Paulo 3 - 0 Gremio Home

In the last 5 meetings, Sao Paulo won 3, drew 0 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Sao Paulo — unbeaten run (home)2

Sao Paulo — scoring streak (home)2

Gremio — winless run (away)0

Gremio — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sao Paulo Win (1)61%

Draw (X)25%

Gremio Win (2)14%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 68%

58% +1.5 32%

11% +2.5 16%

0% +3.5 5%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 32%

42% -1.5 68%

89% -2.5 84%

100% -3.5 95%

100% -4.5 100%

Sao Paulo vs Gremio — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sao Paulo — scored (home)1.42

Sao Paulo — conceded (home)0.89

Gremio — scored (away)1.21

Gremio — conceded (away)1.74

Model expected combined goals2.13

Both Teams To Score

Yes35%

No65%

Rate per Team

Sao Paulo — BTTS matches (home)42%

Gremio — BTTS matches (away)58%

Combined (simple average)50%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.598%

Under 5.52%

Over 6.592%

Under 6.58%

Over 7.587%

Under 7.513%

Over 8.566%

Under 8.534%

Over 9.553%

Under 9.547%

Over 10.537%

Under 10.563%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.00

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sao Paulo (home)

Corners for5.1

Corners against4.7

Gremio (away)

Corners for3.7

Corners against6.4

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sao Paulo

9 11 7 13 12

Gremio

8 8 8 10 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.5100%

Under 1.50%

Over 2.598%

Under 2.52%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.4

Yellow Cards per Team

Sao Paulo (home)

For2.8

Gremio (away)

For2.8

Shots per Game

Sao Paulo — total shots (home)13.3

Gremio — total shots (away)10.1

Shots on Target

Sao Paulo — on target (home)4.1

Gremio — on target (away)3.7

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sao Paulo

Inside the box7.11

Outside the box4.74

Gremio

Inside the box7.21

Outside the box5.03

Player Shots Sao Paulo

Luciano

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target63%

+1.5 On Target19%

G. Tapia

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target15%

J. Dinenno

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target14%

Ferreira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target4%

André Silva

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Gremio

Carlos Vinícius

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target64%

+1.5 On Target36%

M. Braithwaite

Shots on Target/Game0.9

+0.5 On Target67%

+1.5 On Target17%

F. Amuzu

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target45%

+1.5 On Target18%

André Henrique

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target44%

+1.5 On Target16%

M. Arezo

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target25%

+1.5 On Target25%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sao Paulo xG (home)1.15

Gremio xG (away)1.29

Average Possession

52.13% Possession 45.16%

Team Comparison Sao Paulo vs Gremio

83.71% Pass accuracy 82.32%

438.63 Passes per match 379.66

0.21 Goals prevented 0.22

14.24 Fouls committed 13.37

3.21 Goalkeeper saves 3.41

1.47 Offsides 1.08

17.21 Tackles per match 17.37

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sao Paulo vs Gremio prediction analysis

Review Sao Paulo vs Gremio with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights