Prediction Analysis

Prediction Analysis: Sao Paulo vs Internacional

Sao Paulo vs Internacional prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-12-03 23:00
Sao Paulo
Home
Selected Prediction
Featured Pick
Over 2.5 Goals
Pick
Yes
Probability
47%
Confidence
Low
Score
1-0
Internacional
Away

Prediction Summary

1
53%
X
25%
2
22%
Under 2.5
53%
BTTS No
51%
Confidence
Low

Market Evidence

Sao Paulo (Home)

Goals scored / match1.42
Goals conceded / match0.89
Over 2.5 rate11%
BTTS rate42%

Internacional (Away)

Goals scored / match0.89
Goals conceded / match1.95
Over 2.5 rate5%
BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sao Paulo
LWLWL
Internacional
WLLDW

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 63%
58% +1.5 21%
11% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%
42% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 47%. Model confidence is Low.

Sao Paulo averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Internacional averages 0.89 goals scored away.

Model Strength
53%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win
53%
Draw
25%
Away Win
22%
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS Yes
49%

Head-to-Head last 5

Dec 2025 Sao Paulo 3 - 0 Internacional Home
Aug 2025 Sao Paulo(A) 2 - 1 Internacional Home
Sep 2024 Sao Paulo 1 - 3 Internacional Away
Jun 2024 Sao Paulo(A) 0 - 0 Internacional Draw
Sep 2023 Sao Paulo(A) 1 - 2 Internacional Away

In the last 5 meetings, Sao Paulo won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.

Current Streaks

Sao Paulo — unbeaten run (home)2
Sao Paulo — scoring streak (home)2
Internacional — winless run (away)2
Internacional — clean sheets (away, last 5)0 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sao Paulo Win (1)53%
Draw (X)25%
Internacional Win (2)22%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 63%
58% +1.5 21%
11% +2.5 5%
0% +3.5 0%
0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 37%
42% -1.5 79%
89% -2.5 95%
100% -3.5 100%
100% -4.5 100%

Sao Paulo vs Internacional — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sao Paulo — scored (home)1.42
Sao Paulo — conceded (home)0.89
Internacional — scored (away)0.89
Internacional — conceded (away)1.95
Model expected combined goals2.56

Both Teams To Score

Yes49%
No51%

Rate per Team

Sao Paulo — BTTS matches (home)42%
Internacional — BTTS matches (away)63%
Combined (simple average)52.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%
Under 4.50%
Over 5.5100%
Under 5.50%
Over 6.592%
Under 6.58%
Over 7.584%
Under 7.516%
Over 8.563%
Under 8.537%
Over 9.550%
Under 9.550%
Over 10.527%
Under 10.573%
Expected total corners (blended average)9.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sao Paulo (home)

Corners for5.1
Corners against4.7

Internacional (away)

Corners for4.2
Corners against5.1

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sao Paulo
9 11 7 13 12
Internacional
8 5 7 13 6

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%
Under 0.50%
Over 1.595%
Under 1.55%
Over 2.590%
Under 2.510%
Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5

Yellow Cards per Team

Sao Paulo (home)

For2.8

Internacional (away)

For2.3

Shots per Game

Sao Paulo — total shots (home)13.3
Internacional — total shots (away)10.4

Shots on Target

Sao Paulo — on target (home)4.1
Internacional — on target (away)3.4

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sao Paulo

Inside the box7.11
Outside the box4.74

Internacional

Inside the box8.08
Outside the box5.5

Player Shots Sao Paulo

Luciano
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target63%
+1.5 On Target19%
G. Tapia
Shots on Target/Game0.8
+0.5 On Target60%
+1.5 On Target15%
J. Dinenno
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target29%
+1.5 On Target14%
Ferreira
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target43%
+1.5 On Target4%
André Silva
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target35%
+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Internacional

J. Carbonero
Shots on Target/Game0.7
+0.5 On Target57%
+1.5 On Target13%
Alan Patrick
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target50%
+1.5 On Target13%
Ricardo Mathias
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target32%
+1.5 On Target23%
Gustavo Prado
Shots on Target/Game0.6
+0.5 On Target39%
+1.5 On Target17%
Tabata
Shots on Target/Game0.5
+0.5 On Target42%
+1.5 On Target8%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sao Paulo xG (home)1.15
Internacional xG (away)1.4

Average Possession

52.13% Possession 51.08%

Team Comparison Sao Paulo vs Internacional

83.71% Pass accuracy 82.63%
438.63 Passes per match 429.03
0.21 Goals prevented -0.13
14.24 Fouls committed 14.89
3.21 Goalkeeper saves 2.61
1.47 Offsides 1.78
17.21 Tackles per match 18.39

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sao Paulo vs Internacional prediction analysis

Review Sao Paulo vs Internacional with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A
DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics
Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators
AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights
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