What markets are included in the Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras prediction?

GoalStatsLab may analyze 1X2 outcome probabilities, Over/Under 2.5 goals, Both Teams To Score, corners and cards where enough match data is available.

How is the Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras prediction calculated?

The prediction is based on available football data such as recent form, goals scored and conceded, home and away performance, league trends and selected market probabilities.

Are football predictions guaranteed?

No. Football predictions are statistical estimates and should be used for analysis, not as guaranteed betting outcomes or financial advice.

Prediction Analysis: Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras

Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras prediction based on recent form, head-to-head data, team performance and key match statistics.

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Serie A 2025-10-05 19:00

Sao Paulo

Home

Selected Prediction

Featured Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Pick

Yes

Probability

36%

Confidence

Medium

Score

1-1

Palmeiras

Away

Prediction Summary

35%

30%

35%

Under 2.5

64%

BTTS No

57%

Confidence

Medium

Market Evidence

Sao Paulo (Home)

Goals scored / match1.42

Goals conceded / match0.89

Over 2.5 rate11%

BTTS rate42%

Palmeiras (Away)

Goals scored / match1.63

Goals conceded / match1.16

Over 2.5 rate16%

BTTS rate63%

Team Form last 5 matches

Sao Paulo

LWLWL

Palmeiras

WWLDD

Goals Comparison rate per team

74% +0.5 89%

58% +1.5 58%

11% +2.5 16%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

42% BTTS 63%

Model Insight

The selected market is Over 2.5 Goals with a probability of 36%. Model confidence is Medium.

Sao Paulo averages 1.42 goals scored at home, while Palmeiras averages 1.63 goals scored away.

Model Strength

64%

Other Top Markets for This Match

Home Win

35%

Draw

30%

Away Win

35%

Over 2.5

36%

BTTS Yes

43%

Head-to-Head last 5

Oct 2025 Sao Paulo 2 - 3 Palmeiras Away

May 2025 Sao Paulo(A) 0 - 1 Palmeiras Away

Aug 2024 Sao Paulo(A) 1 - 2 Palmeiras Away

Apr 2024 Sao Paulo 0 - 0 Palmeiras Draw

Oct 2023 Sao Paulo(A) 0 - 5 Palmeiras Away

In the last 5 meetings, Sao Paulo won 0, drew 1 and lost 4.

Current Streaks

Sao Paulo — unbeaten run (home)2

Sao Paulo — scoring streak (home)2

Palmeiras — winless run (away)0

Palmeiras — clean sheets (away, last 5)1 of 5

1X2 Probability model

Sao Paulo Win (1)35%

Draw (X)30%

Palmeiras Win (2)35%

Goals Over rate per team, own matches

74% +0.5 89%

58% +1.5 58%

11% +2.5 16%

0% +3.5 0%

0% +4.5 0%

Goals Under rate per team, own matches

26% -0.5 11%

42% -1.5 42%

89% -2.5 84%

100% -3.5 100%

100% -4.5 100%

Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras — share of each team's own matches finishing above/below each goal line.

Goal Averages per Team

Sao Paulo — scored (home)1.42

Sao Paulo — conceded (home)0.89

Palmeiras — scored (away)1.63

Palmeiras — conceded (away)1.16

Model expected combined goals2.14

Both Teams To Score

Yes43%

No57%

Rate per Team

Sao Paulo — BTTS matches (home)42%

Palmeiras — BTTS matches (away)63%

Combined (simple average)52.5%

Corners Line match total, blended estimate

Over 4.5100%

Under 4.50%

Over 5.595%

Under 5.55%

Over 6.592%

Under 6.58%

Over 7.582%

Under 7.518%

Over 8.563%

Under 8.537%

Over 9.553%

Under 9.547%

Over 10.540%

Under 10.560%

Expected total corners (blended average)10.50

Per-Team Corners own matches

Sao Paulo (home)

Corners for5.1

Corners against4.7

Palmeiras (away)

Corners for6.0

Corners against5.3

Recent Trend last 5 matches — total corners

Sao Paulo

9 11 7 13 12

Palmeiras

9 13 8 16 14

Yellow Cards Line match total, blended estimate

Over 0.5100%

Under 0.50%

Over 1.598%

Under 1.52%

Over 2.587%

Under 2.513%

Expected total yellow cards (blended average)5.2

Yellow Cards per Team

Sao Paulo (home)

For2.8

Palmeiras (away)

For2.2

Shots per Game

Sao Paulo — total shots (home)13.3

Palmeiras — total shots (away)13.5

Shots on Target

Sao Paulo — on target (home)4.1

Palmeiras — on target (away)5.0

Shot Location Split avg per match, season

Sao Paulo

Inside the box7.11

Outside the box4.74

Palmeiras

Inside the box8.79

Outside the box6.61

Player Shots Sao Paulo

Luciano

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target63%

+1.5 On Target19%

G. Tapia

Shots on Target/Game0.8

+0.5 On Target60%

+1.5 On Target15%

J. Dinenno

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target29%

+1.5 On Target14%

Ferreira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target43%

+1.5 On Target4%

André Silva

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target35%

+1.5 On Target10%

Player Shots Palmeiras

Vitor Roque

Shots on Target/Game1.2

+0.5 On Target70%

+1.5 On Target30%

J. López

Shots on Target/Game1.1

+0.5 On Target73%

+1.5 On Target30%

F. Torres

Shots on Target/Game0.6

+0.5 On Target41%

+1.5 On Target14%

Luighi Hanri

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target36%

+1.5 On Target18%

Andreas Pereira

Shots on Target/Game0.5

+0.5 On Target40%

+1.5 On Target7%

Probabilities are each player's own historical rate this season (minimum 3 matches played), not a joint match forecast.

Expected Goals (xG)

Sao Paulo xG (home)1.15

Palmeiras xG (away)1.49

Average Possession

52.13% Possession 52.34%

Team Comparison Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras

83.71% Pass accuracy 82.21%

438.63 Passes per match 406.61

0.21 Goals prevented 0.13

14.24 Fouls committed 14.61

3.21 Goalkeeper saves 2.95

1.47 Offsides 1.79

17.21 Tackles per match 16.89

League average xG this season is 1.23 per team per match, for context.

Disclaimer: these predictions are generated by a statistical model and do not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of outcome. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.

PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras prediction analysis

Review Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras with prediction probabilities, 1X2, Over 2.5, BTTS, team form, market signals and key performance data from Serie A.

1X2 Over 2.5 BTTS Recent form Team performance Serie A

DataHistorical results, fixtures and performance metrics

Markets1X2, goals, BTTS, corners, cards and trend indicators

AnalysisLeague, team, player and match-level insights